Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primera División (Uruguay) · Uruguay

full time

Saturday, 3 October 2026

Liverpool Montevideo

3–2full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 2–2

Progreso

What Janus-12 said

81%

Liverpool Montevideo or draw

72% success over 47 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Liverpool Montevideo or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 03/10, 04:45.

Sealed on 03/10, 15:00announced on 24/09/2026, 9 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

53% success over 47 matches in this league
58%✓

Primera: Clausura

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Liverpool Montevideo	9	6	2	1	+10	20
2	Atletico Torque	9	6	1	2	+9	19
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	+9	19
4	Deportivo Maldonado	9	5	2	2	+8	17
5	Club Nacional	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	+1	15
7	Juventud	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	Cerro	9	4	2	3	-2	14
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	-3	12
11	Boston River	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Defensor Sporting	9	2	2	5	-7	8
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	-6	7
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	-6	5
15	Central Espanol	9	1	2	6	-11	5
16	Albion FC	9	1	0	8	-9	3

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Liverpool Montevideo or draw81%held
- Liverpool Montevideo took the lead in the 82nd minute and never let it go.
Liverpool Montevideo to win58%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLiverpool Montevideo 1st, Progreso 10th (Primera: Clausura)

During the match

During the match38′ opening goal, Liverpool Montevideo (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match48′ equaliser, Progreso (1-1)
During the match82′ Liverpool Montevideo retake the lead (2-1)
During the match88′ Liverpool Montevideo go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match90′ last goal, Progreso

What it changes

In this league, “Liverpool Montevideo or draw” goes from 72.3% to 72.9% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Liverpool Montevideo on the left, Progreso on the right.

First half

10'Yellow card · Lucas acosta
Yellow card · Emiliano Alvarez18'
34'Yellow card · Kevin Lewis
Yellow card · Marco Antonio Saravia36'
38'Goal · Santiago Milano Larrosa
Yellow card · Gianfranco trasante45+1'

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Substitution · Marco Antonio Saravia ⇄ hernan carroso46'
Substitution · Gianfranco trasante ⇄ Nahuel acosta46'
Goal · nahuel lopez48'
51'Substitution · Lucas acosta ⇄ Diego Romero Lanz
62'Substitution · Federico Martinez ⇄ Ramiro Matias Degregorio
62'Substitution · Kevin Lewis ⇄ Diego Zabala
67'Substitution · Rafael Haller
67'Substitution · Thiago Brizuela ⇄ Facundo Barcelo
68'VAR · Rubén Bentancourt
71'Yellow card · Ramiro Matias Degregorio
Substitution · Maximiliano Juambeltz ⇄ Matteo copelotti73'
Yellow card · nahuel lopez77'
79'Yellow card · Rubén Bentancourt
82'Goal · Diego Zabala
Substitution · Ayrton Cougo ⇄ gary silva83'
88'Goal · Diego Zabala
Goal · Gastón Silva90+2'

What we announced

2/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Liverpool Montevideo or draw81%held
- Liverpool Montevideo took the lead in the 82nd minute and never let it go.
Liverpool Montevideo to win58%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableLiverpool Montevideo 1st, Progreso 10th (Primera: Clausura)

During the match

During the match38′ opening goal, Liverpool Montevideo (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match48′ equaliser, Progreso (1-1)
During the match82′ Liverpool Montevideo retake the lead (2-1)
During the match88′ Liverpool Montevideo go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match90′ last goal, Progreso

What it changes

In this league, “Liverpool Montevideo or draw” goes from 72.3% to 72.9% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primera: Clausura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes