Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga Pro · Ecuador

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Emelec

1–2full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–2

Libertad

What Janus-12 said

72%

Emelec or draw

82% success over 49 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 28 %

A prediction at 72 % fails 28 % of the time: it happened.

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 19/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 20/09, 01:00announced on 17/09/2026, 2 days before kick-off

Liga Pro: Regular season

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	+24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Emelec or draw72%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Libertad scored in the 90th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Emelec had 16 shots against 10, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEmelec 10th, Libertad 7th (Liga Pro: Regular season)

During the match

During the match23′ opening goal, Emelec (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match61′ equaliser, Libertad (1-1)
During the match88′ sending-off, Emelec (A. Leguizamon)
During the match90′ turnaround, Libertad go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Emelec or draw” goes from 81.6% to 80% success rate, over 50 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Emelec on the left, Libertad on the right.

First half

Yellow card · O. Quinonez6'
20'Yellow card · O. Herrera
Yellow card · B. Caicedo23'
23'Yellow card · A. Leguizamon
23'Goal · R. Saya (assist : T. Arce)
32'Yellow card · E. Medran

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Substitution · O. Quinonez ⇄ C. Gruezo46'
Substitution · C. Valencia ⇄ J. Bravo46'
46'Substitution · T. Arce ⇄ L. Fragozo
Goal · J. Bravo (assist : G. J. Cortez Casierra)61'
62'Substitution · O. Herrera ⇄ L. Gomez
Substitution · A. Chere ⇄ E. Caicedo73'
Substitution · V. Branda ⇄ H. Batalla73'
75'Substitution · J. Ruiz ⇄ G. Napoli
75'Substitution · E. Segura ⇄ S. Valencia
Substitution · G. J. Cortez Casierra ⇄ C. Orejuela78'
82'Substitution · R. Saya ⇄ J. Ayovi
88'Yellow card · A. Leguizamon
88'Red card · A. Leguizamon
Goal · B. Caicedo (assist : C. Orejuela)90'
Yellow card · E. Caicedo90+4'
Yellow card · R. Morinigo90+5'

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Emelec or draw72%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Libertad scored in the 90th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Emelec had 16 shots against 10, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEmelec 10th, Libertad 7th (Liga Pro: Regular season)

During the match

During the match23′ opening goal, Emelec (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match61′ equaliser, Libertad (1-1)
During the match88′ sending-off, Emelec (A. Leguizamon)
During the match90′ turnaround, Libertad go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Emelec or draw” goes from 81.6% to 80% success rate, over 50 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Liga Pro: Regular season

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes