Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga Pro · Ecuador

full time

Saturday, 19 September 2026

Match brought forward

Brought forward to Saturday 19 September at 01:30. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 21:00.

Change noted on 18/09.

Aucas

1-2full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 1–1

Macara

What Janus-12 said

73%

Aucas or draw

83% success over 47 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 27 %

A prediction at 73 % fails 27 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 4 bookmakers

Bet offered: Aucas or draw

1xBet
BetPawa
PMUC
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 18/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 19/09, 01:30announced on 17/09/2026, 1 day before kick-off

Liga Pro

as of 21/09, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	+24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
11	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Aucas or draw73%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Aucas had 12 shots against 9, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAucas 4th, Macara 3rd (Liga Pro)

During the match

During the match45′ opening goal, Macara (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match55′ Macara go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match87′ sending-off, Macara (J. Estacio)
During the match90′ last goal, Aucas

What it changes

In this league, “Aucas or draw” goes from 83% to 81.3% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,166 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Aucas on the left, Macara on the right.

First half

Yellow card · F. Posse22'
Goal · F. Posse (assist : A. I. Campana)45+2'

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

46'Substitution · L. Gustavino ⇄ R. Bolanos
Yellow card · J. Jimenez52'
Goal · A. I. Campana (assist : F. Posse)55'
Substitution · M. Viera ⇄ M. Miranda57'
60'Substitution · L. Arroyo ⇄ R. Monti
60'Substitution · A. Mena ⇄ B. Oyola
Substitution · M. Tello ⇄ T. Espinoza77'
Substitution · A. I. Campana ⇄ J. Klinger77'
Substitution · F. Posse ⇄ L. Ferro84'
Substitution · D. Bolanos ⇄ M. Medranda84'
Yellow card · J. Estacio87'
Red card · J. Estacio87'
89'Substitution · M. Burdisso ⇄ C. Zambrano
Yellow card · J. Marrufo90+2'
90+7'Penalty goal · E. Preciado

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Aucas or draw73%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Aucas had 12 shots against 9, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAucas 4th, Macara 3rd (Liga Pro)

During the match

During the match45′ opening goal, Macara (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match55′ Macara go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match87′ sending-off, Macara (J. Estacio)
During the match90′ last goal, Aucas

What it changes

In this league, “Aucas or draw” goes from 83% to 81.3% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,166 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Liga Pro

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes