Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga Nacional · Honduras

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Juticalpa

3–2full timeHT 2–2 · 2H 1–0

CD Marathon

What Janus-12 said

86%

Draw or CD Marathon

85% success over 34 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 14 %

A prediction at 86 % fails 14 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Draw or CD Marathon

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 04:08.

Sealed on 20/09, 22:00announced on 07/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

70% success over 30 matches in this league
84%✓
62% success over 34 matches in this league
62%✗

Apertura

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Real Espana	8	5	3	0	+9	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	5	2	1	+12	17
3	CD Marathon	8	5	2	1	+8	17
4	CD Motagua	8	4	1	3	+3	13
5	Génesis	8	3	2	3	+4	11
6	Olancho	8	2	5	1	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	2	3	3	-3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	2	3	3	-4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	2	2	4	-5	8
10	Atlético Choloma	8	2	1	5	-2	7
11	Juticalpa	8	2	0	6	-11	6
12	Platense FC	8	1	2	5	-12	5

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or CD Marathon86%lost
- CD Marathon finished with ten men: sent off in the 75th minute, 15 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Juticalpa scored in the 85th minute.
Draw or CD Marathon ahead at half-time84%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-2 at half-time, 2′ CD Marathon, 18′ Juticalpa, 24′ CD Marathon, 39′ Juticalpa.
CD Marathon to win62%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableJuticalpa 11th, CD Marathon 3rd (Apertura)

During the match

During the match2′ opening goal, CD Marathon (0-1)
During the match18′ equaliser, Juticalpa (1-1)
During the match24′ CD Marathon retake the lead (1-2)
During the match39′ equaliser, Juticalpa (2-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-2
During the match75′ sending-off, CD Marathon (D. Ramirez)
During the match85′ turnaround, Juticalpa go ahead (3-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or CD Marathon” goes from 85.3% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,964 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Juticalpa on the left, CD Marathon on the right.

First half

Own goal · O. Barrios2'
8'Yellow card · C. Sacaza
18'Goal · C. Sacaza
Goal · C. Argueta24'
39'Goal · J. Padilla
45'Yellow card · O. Barrios

Half-time2 – 2

Second half

46'Substitution · N. Gaboriell ⇄ K. Kelly
46'Substitution · O. Barrios ⇄ K. Matute
Yellow card · S. Agurcia48'
50'Yellow card · J. Velasquez
Substitution · C. Perez ⇄ Y. Mejia65'
Substitution · C. Argueta ⇄ A. Elis65'
67'Substitution · C. Rochez ⇄ M. Canales
69'Substitution · J. Rochez ⇄ Y. Delgadillo
70'Yellow card · K. Kelly
Yellow card · H. Figueroa74'
Red card · D. Ramirez75'
78'Substitution · J. Padilla ⇄ D. Monico
Yellow card · J. Aguilera81'
85'Goal · J. Velasquez
Yellow card · Y. Moreno88'

What we announced

1/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or CD Marathon86%lost
- CD Marathon finished with ten men: sent off in the 75th minute, 15 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Juticalpa scored in the 85th minute.
Draw or CD Marathon ahead at half-time84%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-2 at half-time, 2′ CD Marathon, 18′ Juticalpa, 24′ CD Marathon, 39′ Juticalpa.
CD Marathon to win62%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableJuticalpa 11th, CD Marathon 3rd (Apertura)

During the match

During the match2′ opening goal, CD Marathon (0-1)
During the match18′ equaliser, Juticalpa (1-1)
During the match24′ CD Marathon retake the lead (1-2)
During the match39′ equaliser, Juticalpa (2-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-2
During the match75′ sending-off, CD Marathon (D. Ramirez)
During the match85′ turnaround, Juticalpa go ahead (3-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or CD Marathon” goes from 85.3% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,964 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Apertura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes