Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

1. Lig · Turkey

full time

Sunday, 13 September 2026

Karagumruk

1-1full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–1

Manisa F.K.

What Janus-12 said

90%

Under 4.5 goals

88% success over 52 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 13/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 13/09, 18:00announced on 30/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 52 matches in this league
65%✓
79% success over 52 matches in this league
70%✓
77% success over 52 matches in this league
76%✓
70% success over 56 matches in this league
73%✗
65% success over 52 matches in this league
54%✓
62% success over 52 matches in this league
68%✗
62% success over 52 matches in this league
72%✓
53% success over 47 matches in this league
53%✓

Lig A

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Kayserispor	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Iğdır FK	8	5	1	2	+5	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	5	1	2	+2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	3	4	1	+7	13
7	Mardin 1969	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	4	0	4	+1	12
9	Karagumruk	8	3	3	2	+1	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	2	5	1	+1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	2	4	2	+7	10
12	Pendikspor	8	2	4	2	-3	10
13	Manisa F.K.	8	2	3	3	0	9
14	Bodrumspor	8	1	5	2	+1	8
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	-2	8
16	Umraniyespor	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Esenler Erokspor	8	0	5	3	-6	5
18	Istanbulspor	8	1	2	5	-12	5
19	Vanspor FK	8	1	3	4	-9	4
20	Boluspor	8	0	1	7	-17	1

What we announced

7/9

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals90%held
- The two teams managed only 6 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
At least 1 goal before half-time65%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 31′ Karagumruk.
Over 1.5 goals70%held
- The two teams had 6 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals76%held
Karagumruk or Manisa F.K.73%lost
One team ahead at half-time54%held
Draw or Manisa F.K. ahead at half-time68%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time72%held
Under 2.5 goals53%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableKaragumruk 9th, Manisa F.K. 13th (Lig A)

During the match

During the match31′ opening goal, Karagumruk (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match71′ equaliser, Manisa F.K. (1-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 88.5% to 88.7% success rate, over 53 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Karagumruk on the left, Manisa F.K. on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Atakan Rıdvan Çankaya21'
31'Goal · Aleksandar Pešić (assist : Ahmed Traore)

Half-time1 - 0

Second half

Substitution · Yasin Güreler ⇄ Firat İnal54'
Substitution · Yassine Benrahou ⇄ K. Yurdakul65'
66'Substitution · Cenk Tosun ⇄ Tiago Cukur
Goal · Julien Anziani (assist : K. Yurdakul)71'
77'Substitution · Dorukhan Toköz ⇄ Daniele Verde
Yellow card · Yusuf Talum79'
Substitution · Alenis Vargas ⇄ Osman Kahraman87'
Substitution · Yusuf Talum ⇄ Noha Lemina87'
90+2'Yellow card · Aleksandar Pešić

What we announced

7/9

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals90%held
- The two teams managed only 6 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
At least 1 goal before half-time65%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 31′ Karagumruk.
Over 1.5 goals70%held
- The two teams had 6 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals76%held
Karagumruk or Manisa F.K.73%lost
One team ahead at half-time54%held
Draw or Manisa F.K. ahead at half-time68%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time72%held
Under 2.5 goals53%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableKaragumruk 9th, Manisa F.K. 13th (Lig A)

During the match

During the match31′ opening goal, Karagumruk (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match71′ equaliser, Manisa F.K. (1-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 88.5% to 88.7% success rate, over 53 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Lig A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes