Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

1. Lig · Turkey

full time

Sunday, 13 September 2026

Bursaspor

2–2full timeHT 2–1 · 2H 0–1

Esenler Erokspor

What Janus-12 said

85%

Under 4.5 goals

88% success over 52 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 13/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 13/09, 18:00announced on 30/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 52 matches in this league
66%✓
79% success over 52 matches in this league
73%✓
77% success over 52 matches in this league
76%✗
70% success over 56 matches in this league
77%✗
65% success over 52 matches in this league
56%✓
62% success over 52 matches in this league
64%✗
62% success over 52 matches in this league
69%✗
45% success over 56 matches in this league
51%✗
40% success over 5 matches in this league
52%✓

Lig A

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Kayserispor	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Iğdır FK	8	5	1	2	+5	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	5	1	2	+2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	3	4	1	+7	13
7	Mardin 1969	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	4	0	4	+1	12
9	Karagumruk	8	3	3	2	+1	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	2	5	1	+1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	2	4	2	+7	10
12	Pendikspor	8	2	4	2	-3	10
13	Manisa F.K.	8	2	3	3	0	9
14	Bodrumspor	8	1	5	2	+1	8
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	-2	8
16	Umraniyespor	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Esenler Erokspor	8	0	5	3	-6	5
18	Istanbulspor	8	1	2	5	-12	5
19	Vanspor FK	8	1	3	4	-9	4
20	Boluspor	8	0	1	7	-17	1

What we announced

5/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals85%held
- The two teams managed only 8 shots on target in total, for 4 goals.
At least 1 goal before half-time66%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 16′ Bursaspor, 18′ Esenler Erokspor, 20′ Bursaspor.
Over 1.5 goals73%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 16th minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals76%lost
Bursaspor or Esenler Erokspor77%lost
One team ahead at half-time56%held
Draw or Esenler Erokspor ahead at half-time64%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time69%lost
Bursaspor to win51%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Bursaspor had 17 shots against 7, for 2 goals against 2.
- Bursaspor chased the score almost all match: Esenler Erokspor scored as early as the 18th minute.
Over 2.5 goals52%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBursaspor 2nd, Esenler Erokspor 17th (Lig A)

During the match

During the match16′ opening goal, Bursaspor (1-0)
During the match18′ equaliser, Esenler Erokspor (1-1)
During the match20′ Bursaspor retake the lead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match50′ equaliser, Esenler Erokspor (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 88.5% to 88.7% success rate, over 53 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Bursaspor on the left, Esenler Erokspor on the right.

First half

16'Goal · Kelechi Iheanacho (assist : Ivan Saranic)
Goal · Mikail Okyar18'
20'Goal · Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Yellow card · Guélor Kanga27'
Substitution · Furkan Orak ⇄ Nicolas Janvier45'
Substitution · Altin Zeqiri ⇄ Burak Coban45'

Half-time2 – 1

Second half

Goal · Yusuf Erdoğan (assist : Guélor Kanga)50'
Substitution · Yusuf Erdoğan ⇄ Yusuf Arda Özyurt54'
63'Substitution · Halil Akbunar ⇄ Amine Boutrah
63'Substitution · B. Gök ⇄ Tural Bayramov
Yellow card · H. Karaman69'
72'Yellow card · Kelechi Iheanacho
75'Substitution · Eyüp Akcan ⇄ Soner Aydoğdu
75'Substitution · Ivan Saranic ⇄ Hüseyin Maldar
Substitution · Yusuf Arda Özyurt ⇄ Muhamed Buljubašić77'
Substitution · Braian Samudio ⇄ Erkan Kaş77'
83'Substitution · Zeki Yavru ⇄ Rahmetullah Berisbek
90'VAR: Goal cancelled · Kelechi Iheanacho
Yellow card · Erdem·Canpolat90+1'
90+6'Yellow card · Juergen Elitim

What we announced

5/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals85%held
- The two teams managed only 8 shots on target in total, for 4 goals.
At least 1 goal before half-time66%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 16′ Bursaspor, 18′ Esenler Erokspor, 20′ Bursaspor.
Over 1.5 goals73%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 16th minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals76%lost
Bursaspor or Esenler Erokspor77%lost
One team ahead at half-time56%held
Draw or Esenler Erokspor ahead at half-time64%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time69%lost
Bursaspor to win51%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Bursaspor had 17 shots against 7, for 2 goals against 2.
- Bursaspor chased the score almost all match: Esenler Erokspor scored as early as the 18th minute.
Over 2.5 goals52%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBursaspor 2nd, Esenler Erokspor 17th (Lig A)

During the match

During the match16′ opening goal, Bursaspor (1-0)
During the match18′ equaliser, Esenler Erokspor (1-1)
During the match20′ Bursaspor retake the lead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match50′ equaliser, Esenler Erokspor (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 88.5% to 88.7% success rate, over 53 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Lig A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes