Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

1. Lig · Turkey

full time

Thursday, 3 September 2026

Iğdır FK

4-2full timeHT 3–1 · 2H 1–1

Manisa F.K.

What Janus-12 said

90%

Under 4.5 goals

91% success over 32 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 10 %

A prediction at 90 % fails 10 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 03/09, 12:30.

Sealed on 03/09, 15:00announced on 20/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

81% success over 32 matches in this league
77%✗
78% success over 32 matches in this league
67%✓
75% success over 32 matches in this league
64%✓
72% success over 36 matches in this league
69%✓
69% success over 32 matches in this league
75%✗
66% success over 32 matches in this league
53%✓
63% success over 32 matches in this league
73%✗
62% success over 29 matches in this league
57%✗

Lig A

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Kayserispor	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Iğdır FK	8	5	1	2	+5	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	5	1	2	+2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	3	4	1	+7	13
7	Mardin 1969	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	4	0	4	+1	12
9	Karagumruk	8	3	3	2	+1	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	2	5	1	+1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	2	4	2	+7	10
12	Pendikspor	8	2	4	2	-3	10
13	Manisa F.K.	8	2	3	3	0	9
14	Bodrumspor	8	1	5	2	+1	8
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	-2	8
16	Umraniyespor	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Esenler Erokspor	8	0	5	3	-6	5
18	Istanbulspor	8	1	2	5	-12	5
19	Vanspor FK	8	1	3	4	-9	4
20	Boluspor	8	0	1	7	-17	1

What we announced

4/9

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals90%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 9th minute, 6 in total.
- The two teams had 13 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals77%lost
Over 1.5 goals67%held
At least 1 goal before half-time64%held
- It was all decided before the break: 3-1 at half-time, 9′ Iğdır FK, 16′ Iğdır FK, 25′ Iğdır FK, 45′ Manisa F.K..
Iğdır FK or Manisa F.K.69%held
Draw or Manisa F.K. ahead at half-time75%lost
One team ahead at half-time53%held
At most 1 goal before half-time73%lost
Under 2.5 goals57%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableIğdır FK 3rd, Manisa F.K. 13th (Lig A)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Iğdır FK (1-0)
During the match16′ Iğdır FK go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-1
During the match89′ last goal, Manisa F.K.

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 90.6% to 87.9% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,688 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Iğdır FK on the left, Manisa F.K. on the right.

First half

9'Goal · Loic Kouagba (assist : Soner Gönül)
Yellow card · K. Yurdakul14'
16'Penalty goal · Alim Öztürk
25'Goal · Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan
Substitution · Noha Lemina ⇄ Yassine Benrahou32'
Substitution · Ahmet Şen ⇄ Birama Toure32'
Substitution · Kerem Arık ⇄ Cheikne Sylla32'
40'VAR · Arda Çolak
Substitution · Osman Kahraman ⇄ Yusuf Talum45'
Penalty goal · Julien Anziani45+7'

Half-time3 - 1

Second half

57'Yellow card · Arda Çolak
63'Substitution · Arda Çolak ⇄ Douglas Tanque
65'Goal · Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan (assist : Dino Hotić)
67'Substitution · Giovanni Crociata ⇄ Efe-Kaan Sihlaroglu
Substitution · Yasin Güreler ⇄ Firat İnal67'
68'Substitution · Dino Hotić ⇄ Moustapha Camara
Yellow card · Birama Toure71'
Yellow card · Firat İnal73'
78'Substitution · Gökcan Kaya ⇄ Ozder Ozcan
78'Substitution · Alim Öztürk ⇄ Arda Öztürk
Goal · Yusuf Talum (assist : Yassine Benrahou)89'
90+1'Yellow card · Huseyin Karabey
Yellow card · Yassine Benrahou90+3'

What we announced

4/9

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals90%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 9th minute, 6 in total.
- The two teams had 13 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals77%lost
Over 1.5 goals67%held
At least 1 goal before half-time64%held
- It was all decided before the break: 3-1 at half-time, 9′ Iğdır FK, 16′ Iğdır FK, 25′ Iğdır FK, 45′ Manisa F.K..
Iğdır FK or Manisa F.K.69%held
Draw or Manisa F.K. ahead at half-time75%lost
One team ahead at half-time53%held
At most 1 goal before half-time73%lost
Under 2.5 goals57%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableIğdır FK 3rd, Manisa F.K. 13th (Lig A)

During the match

During the match9′ opening goal, Iğdır FK (1-0)
During the match16′ Iğdır FK go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-1
During the match89′ last goal, Manisa F.K.

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 90.6% to 87.9% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,688 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Lig A

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes