Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico

full time

Monday, 7 September 2026

Tapatío

1-3full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 1–2

Leones Negros UDG

What Janus-12 said

75%

Tapatío or draw

85% success over 27 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 25 %

A prediction at 75 % fails 25 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Tapatío or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 06/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 07/09, 00:00announced on 24/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Primera A: Apertura

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros UDG	11	7	2	2	+11	23
2	Monarcas	11	7	1	3	+9	22
3	CA La Paz	11	6	2	3	+11	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	5	2	4	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	5	2	4	+4	17
8	Durango	11	5	2	4	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Tapatío	10	4	2	4	+2	14
11	Dorados	11	3	4	4	0	13
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	CDS Tampico Madero	11	3	2	6	-7	11
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	-14	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	-7	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	2	0	8	-21	6

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Tapatío or draw75%lost
- Tapatío chased the score almost all match: Leones Negros UDG scored as early as the 6th minute.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Leones Negros UDG scored in the 80th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableTapatío 10th, Leones Negros UDG 1st (Primera A: Apertura)

During the match

During the match6′ opening goal, Leones Negros UDG (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match63′ Leones Negros UDG go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match90′ last goal, Tapatío
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: V. Moragrega (Tapatío)

What it changes

In this league, “Tapatío or draw” goes from 85.2% to 82.1% success rate, over 28 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 595,746 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Tapatío on the left, Leones Negros UDG on the right.

First half

Goal · O. Gil (assist : S. A. Hernandez)6'
Yellow card · M. Alvarado40'

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

46'Substitution · L. Ledesma ⇄ G. Garcia
46'Substitution · R. Nuno ⇄ V. Moragrega
46'Substitution · D. Villaseca ⇄ J. Uribe
Missed penalty · L. Razo (assist : L. Razo)53'
56'Yellow card · A. Chavez
Goal · J. Marchand (assist : S. A. Hernandez)63'
Substitution · J. Brigido ⇄ J. Perez65'
68'Substitution · A. Chavez ⇄ L. Jimenez
Yellow card · A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago75'
Substitution · A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago ⇄ U. Meza76'
Substitution · M. Alvarado ⇄ A. Carreon76'
Goal · S. A. Hernandez (assist : L. Razo)80'
Substitution · O. Gil ⇄ J. Cazares82'
Substitution · L. Razo ⇄ K. Loera82'
84'Substitution · L. Calderon ⇄ D. Latorre
90+4'Goal · V. Moragrega

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Tapatío or draw75%lost
- Tapatío chased the score almost all match: Leones Negros UDG scored as early as the 6th minute.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Leones Negros UDG scored in the 80th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableTapatío 10th, Leones Negros UDG 1st (Primera A: Apertura)

During the match

During the match6′ opening goal, Leones Negros UDG (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match63′ Leones Negros UDG go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match90′ last goal, Tapatío
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: V. Moragrega (Tapatío)

What it changes

In this league, “Tapatío or draw” goes from 85.2% to 82.1% success rate, over 28 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 595,746 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primera A: Apertura

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes