Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

2. Bundesliga · Germany

full time

Sunday, 30 August 2026

St. Pauli

1–2full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 1–1

Kaiserslautern

What Janus-12 said

73%

St. Pauli or draw

84% success over 19 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 27 %

A prediction at 73 % fails 27 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: St. Pauli or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 30/08, 09:30.

Sealed on 30/08, 12:30announced on 16/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

44% success over 9 matches in this league
73%✓

2. Bundesliga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	+10	18
2	Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	+10	16
3	Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	+2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	+7	11
5	Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum 1848	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Osnabruck	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	DSC Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruhe	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

St. Pauli or draw73%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: St. Pauli had 21 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
- The chances were on the right side: 1.21 expected goals for St. Pauli against 0.71, and the score says the opposite.
At most 1 goal before half-time73%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 29′ Kaiserslautern.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSt. Pauli 8th, Kaiserslautern 5th (2. Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Kaiserslautern (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match46′ Kaiserslautern go 2 goals up (0-2)

What it changes

In this league, “St. Pauli or draw” goes from 84.2% to 80% success rate, over 20 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

St. Pauli on the left, Kaiserslautern on the right.

First half

Goal · E. Yardimci (assist : S. Sahin)29'
38'Yellow card · D. Nemeth
41'Yellow card · M. Mathisen

Half-time0 – 1

Second half

Substitution · E. Yardimci ⇄ T. Tazemeta46'
Goal · T. Tazemeta46'
55'Substitution · M. Mathisen ⇄ A. Ceesay
55'Substitution · M. Kaars ⇄ C. Metcalfe
56'Goal · A. Ceesay (assist : T. Hara)
Yellow card · J. Rasmussen60'
Yellow card · I. Kanate64'
Yellow card · F. Kunze67'
Substitution · I. Kanate ⇄ M. Berisha68'
Substitution · M. Ritter ⇄ M. Sauer68'
Substitution · F. Kunze ⇄ L. Robinson71'
Yellow card · M. Sauer76'
83'Substitution · T. Hara ⇄ Y. Niang
Substitution · M. Gyamfi ⇄ K. Frees84'
Yellow card · T. Lieberknecht85'
89'Yellow card · T. Ando

What we announced

1/2

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

St. Pauli or draw73%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: St. Pauli had 21 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
- The chances were on the right side: 1.21 expected goals for St. Pauli against 0.71, and the score says the opposite.
At most 1 goal before half-time73%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 29′ Kaiserslautern.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSt. Pauli 8th, Kaiserslautern 5th (2. Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Kaiserslautern (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match46′ Kaiserslautern go 2 goals up (0-2)

What it changes

In this league, “St. Pauli or draw” goes from 84.2% to 80% success rate, over 20 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

2. Bundesliga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes