Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Sunday 20 September at 15:30. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Guimaraes

1–1full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 1–1

Moreirense

What Janus-12 said

71%

Guimaraes or draw

80% success over 45 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Guimaraes or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 11:34.

Sealed on 20/09, 15:30announced on 06/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

78% success over 45 matches in this league
65%✓
76% success over 37 matches in this league
68%✓
60% success over 45 matches in this league
56%✗
48% success over 29 matches in this league
60%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Guimaraes or draw71%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 5 shots on target for Guimaraes against 3.
Over 1.5 goals65%held
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Draw or Moreirense ahead at half-time68%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
One team ahead at half-time56%lost
Under 2.5 goals60%held
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 8 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableGuimaraes 14th, Moreirense 12th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match52′ opening goal, Moreirense (0-1)
During the match90′ equaliser, Guimaraes (1-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Guimaraes or draw” goes from 80% to 80.4% success rate, over 46 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Guimaraes on the left, Moreirense on the right.

First half

12'Substitution · Gustavo Silva ⇄ Miguel Nogueira

Half-time0 – 0

Second half

Goal · Tiago Andrade (assist : Leonardo Vonić)52'
57'Substitution · Alan de Souza Guimarães ⇄ Beni Mukendi
57'Substitution · Gonçalo Nogueira ⇄ Matija Mitrović
57'Substitution · Lohann Doucet ⇄ Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva
Substitution · Leonardo Vonić ⇄ Yan Maranhão63'
Substitution · Kiko Bondoso ⇄ Chipyoka Songa63'
Substitution · Tiago Andrade ⇄ Rodrigo Alonso66'
Substitution · Manuel Mendonça ⇄ Landerson Costa Araújo67'
72'Substitution · Oumar Camara ⇄ Victor Andersson
Substitution · Nile John ⇄ Kevyn Monteiro89'
90+6'Goal · Toni Borevković (assist : Miguel Nogueira)

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Guimaraes or draw71%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 5 shots on target for Guimaraes against 3.
Over 1.5 goals65%held
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Draw or Moreirense ahead at half-time68%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
One team ahead at half-time56%lost
Under 2.5 goals60%held
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 8 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableGuimaraes 14th, Moreirense 12th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match52′ opening goal, Moreirense (0-1)
During the match90′ equaliser, Guimaraes (1-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Guimaraes or draw” goes from 80% to 80.4% success rate, over 46 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes