Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 19 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 19 September at 20:30. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Sp Lisbon

2–2full timeHT 2–0 · 2H 0–2

Arouca

What Janus-12 said

94%

Sp Lisbon or draw

80% success over 44 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Sp Lisbon or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 00:35.

Sealed on 19/09, 20:30announced on 06/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

77% success over 44 matches in this league
84%✓
67% success over 15 matches in this league
64%✓
59% success over 44 matches in this league
83%✗
59% success over 44 matches in this league
70%✓
43% success over 7 matches in this league
63%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

5/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Sp Lisbon or draw94%held
- Sp Lisbon held on with ten men for 36 minutes (sent off in the 54th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Sp Lisbon took control early: opening goal in the 3rd minute.
Over 1.5 goals84%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 3rd minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals64%held
Sp Lisbon to win83%lost
- Sp Lisbon finished with ten men: sent off in the 54th minute, 36 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Arouca scored in the 87th minute.
One team ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 3′ Sp Lisbon, 17′ Sp Lisbon.
Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time63%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSp Lisbon 3rd, Arouca 5th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match3′ opening goal, Sp Lisbon (1-0)
During the match17′ Sp Lisbon go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match54′ sending-off, Sp Lisbon (Zeno Debast)
During the match87′ Arouca come back from 2 goals down (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Sp Lisbon or draw” goes from 79.5% to 80% success rate, over 45 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Sp Lisbon on the left, Arouca on the right.

First half

3'Goal · Gonçalo Inácio (assist : Maximiliano Araujo)
17'Goal · Luis Suárez (assist : Iván Fresneda)
Yellow card · Espen van Ee36'
Yellow card · Javi Sánchez44'
Substitution · Mateo Flores ⇄ Gabrijel Rukavina45'

Half-time2 – 0

Second half

Yellow card · Jose Fontán51'
54'Red card · Zeno Debast
57'Substitution · Nestory Irankunda ⇄ Eduardo Quaresma
Substitution · Espen van Ee ⇄ Pedro Santos59'
61'Yellow card · Luis Suárez
Yellow card · Pedro Santos61'
66'Substitution · Rodrigo Zalazar ⇄ Silas Andersen
Substitution · Alfonso Trezza ⇄ Brian Mansilla69'
VAR: Penalty confirmed · Iván Barbero78'
80'Yellow card · Eduardo Quaresma
Penalty goal · Jose Fontán81'
Substitution · Javi Sánchez ⇄ Dylan Nandín86'
Substitution · Iván Barbero ⇄ Fally Mayulu86'
86'Substitution · Issa Doumbia ⇄ Pedro Lima Barros
86'Substitution · Luis Suárez ⇄ Fotis Ioannidis
Goal · Dylan Nandín87'
Yellow card · Brian Mansilla90+2'
90+4'Yellow card · Maximiliano Araujo
90+8'Yellow card · Gonçalo Inácio

What we announced

5/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Sp Lisbon or draw94%held
- Sp Lisbon held on with ten men for 36 minutes (sent off in the 54th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Sp Lisbon took control early: opening goal in the 3rd minute.
Over 1.5 goals84%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 3rd minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals64%held
Sp Lisbon to win83%lost
- Sp Lisbon finished with ten men: sent off in the 54th minute, 36 minutes a man down.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Arouca scored in the 87th minute.
One team ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 3′ Sp Lisbon, 17′ Sp Lisbon.
Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time63%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSp Lisbon 3rd, Arouca 5th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match3′ opening goal, Sp Lisbon (1-0)
During the match17′ Sp Lisbon go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match54′ sending-off, Sp Lisbon (Zeno Debast)
During the match87′ Arouca come back from 2 goals down (2-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Sp Lisbon or draw” goes from 79.5% to 80% success rate, over 45 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes