Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 20 September at 20:30. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Porto

3–1full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 2–1

Benfica

What Janus-12 said

66%

Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time

78% success over 41 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 34 %

A prediction at 66 % fails 34 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 17:05.

Sealed on 20/09, 20:30announced on 07/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

78% success over 49 matches in this league
71%✓
78% success over 49 matches in this league
78%✓
65% success over 17 matches in this league
53%✓
57% success over 49 matches in this league
59%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time66%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 31′ Porto.
Porto or Benfica71%held
Over 1.5 goals78%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals53%held
One team ahead at half-time59%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePorto 1st, Benfica 2nd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match31′ opening goal, Porto (1-0)
During the match35′ sending-off, Benfica (Clément Lenglet)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match51′ equaliser, Benfica (1-1)
During the match54′ Porto retake the lead (2-1)
During the match60′ Porto go 2 goals up (3-1)
Line-up60′ the goal came off the bench: Hwang In-Beom (Porto)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time” goes from 78% to 76.2% success rate, over 42 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,964 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Porto on the left, Benfica on the right.

First half

5'Yellow card · Gabri Veiga
Yellow card · Clément Lenglet25'
31'Goal · Gabri Veiga (assist : Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa)
Yellow card · Gianluca Prestianni34'
Red card · Clément Lenglet35'
38'Substitution · Gabri Veiga ⇄ Hwang In-Beom
Substitution · Heorhii Sudakov ⇄ Alessandro Circati38'

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Goal · Alexander Bah (assist : Gianluca Prestianni)51'
54'Goal · Victor Froholdt (assist : André Silva)
60'Goal · Hwang In-Beom (assist : André Silva)
69'Substitution · Martim Fernandes ⇄ Francisco Moura
69'Substitution · William Gomes ⇄ Borja Sainz
Substitution · Fredrik Aursnes ⇄ Leandro Barreiro74'
Substitution · Rafa Silva ⇄ Dodi Lukebakio74'
Substitution · Gianluca Prestianni ⇄ Andreas Schjelderup74'
80'Yellow card · Hwang In-Beom
85'Substitution · Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa ⇄ Oskar Pietuszewski
85'Substitution · André Silva ⇄ Samuel Aghehowa
Substitution · Samuel Dahl ⇄ Souffian El Karouani85'
90+2'Yellow card · Oskar Pietuszewski
Yellow card · Tomás Araújo90+3'
Yellow card · Alexander Bah90+3'

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time66%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 31′ Porto.
Porto or Benfica71%held
Over 1.5 goals78%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals53%held
One team ahead at half-time59%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePorto 1st, Benfica 2nd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match31′ opening goal, Porto (1-0)
During the match35′ sending-off, Benfica (Clément Lenglet)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match51′ equaliser, Benfica (1-1)
During the match54′ Porto retake the lead (2-1)
During the match60′ Porto go 2 goals up (3-1)
Line-up60′ the goal came off the bench: Hwang In-Beom (Porto)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time” goes from 78% to 76.2% success rate, over 42 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,964 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes