Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Sunday 20 September at 15:30. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Estrela

0–2full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 0–0

Academico Viseu

What Janus-12 said

77%

Estrela or draw

80% success over 45 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 23 %

A prediction at 77 % fails 23 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Estrela or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 06:05.

Sealed on 20/09, 15:30announced on 06/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

78% success over 45 matches in this league
79%✓
76% success over 37 matches in this league
59%✓
69% success over 16 matches in this league
51%✗
60% success over 45 matches in this league
61%✓
58% success over 45 matches in this league
52%✗

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Estrela or draw77%lost
- Estrela chased the score almost all match: Academico Viseu scored as early as the 10th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Estrela had 16 shots against 8, for 0 goal against 2.
Over 1.5 goals79%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 10th minute, 2 in total.
- The two teams had 6 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Draw or Academico Viseu ahead at half-time59%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 10′ Academico Viseu, 24′ Academico Viseu.
Over 2.5 goals51%lost
- The two teams managed only 6 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
One team ahead at half-time61%held
Estrela to win52%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstrela 8th, Academico Viseu 7th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match10′ opening goal, Academico Viseu (0-1)
During the match24′ Academico Viseu go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Estrela or draw” goes from 80% to 78.3% success rate, over 46 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Estrela on the left, Academico Viseu on the right.

First half

Goal · André Clóvis (assist : Cihan Kahraman)10'
Goal · André Clóvis (assist : Cihan Kahraman)24'
30'Yellow card · Eddy Doué
45'Substitution · Eddy Doué ⇄ Joan Jordan
Substitution · Gustavo Costa ⇄ Miguel Ángel Brau Blanquez45'
Yellow card · Gustavo Costa45+1'

Half-time0 – 2

Second half

64'Substitution · Lovro Zvonarek ⇄ Beni Souza
64'Substitution · Santiago Serra ⇄ Kevin Hoog Jansson
68'Yellow card · Joan Jordan
Substitution · Lorougnon Gohi ⇄ Alvaro Zamora69'
Yellow card · Luis Silva73'
Yellow card · Soufiane Messeguem73'
77'Substitution · Ianis Stoica ⇄ René Mitongo
Substitution · André Clóvis ⇄ Mohamed Bouldini79'
Substitution · Cihan Kahraman ⇄ Alejandro Mestanza79'
84'Substitution · Bernardo Schappo ⇄ Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho
Substitution · João Guilherme ⇄ Nils Mortimer86'

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Estrela or draw77%lost
- Estrela chased the score almost all match: Academico Viseu scored as early as the 10th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Estrela had 16 shots against 8, for 0 goal against 2.
Over 1.5 goals79%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 10th minute, 2 in total.
- The two teams had 6 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Draw or Academico Viseu ahead at half-time59%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 10′ Academico Viseu, 24′ Academico Viseu.
Over 2.5 goals51%lost
- The two teams managed only 6 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
One team ahead at half-time61%held
Estrela to win52%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstrela 8th, Academico Viseu 7th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match10′ opening goal, Academico Viseu (0-1)
During the match24′ Academico Viseu go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2

What it changes

In this league, “Estrela or draw” goes from 80% to 78.3% success rate, over 46 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes