Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 20 September at 18:00. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Estoril

1–2full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 1–2

Casa Pia

What Janus-12 said

79%

Estoril or draw

79% success over 47 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 21 %

A prediction at 79 % fails 21 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Estoril or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 11:34.

Sealed on 20/09, 18:00announced on 06/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 47 matches in this league
68%✓
77% success over 39 matches in this league
63%✓
60% success over 47 matches in this league
59%✗
55% success over 47 matches in this league
56%✗
50% success over 30 matches in this league
59%✗

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

2/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Estoril or draw79%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Casa Pia scored in the 89th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Estoril had 14 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
Over 1.5 goals68%held
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Draw or Casa Pia ahead at half-time63%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
One team ahead at half-time59%lost
Estoril to win56%lost
Under 2.5 goals59%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstoril 18th, Casa Pia 17th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match70′ opening goal, Estoril (1-0)
During the match72′ equaliser, Casa Pia (1-1)
During the match89′ turnaround, Casa Pia go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Estoril or draw” goes from 78.7% to 77.1% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Estoril on the left, Casa Pia on the right.

First half

Missed penalty · Henrique Araújo27'
41'Yellow card · Ismael Sierra
45'Substitution · Axel Camblan ⇄ Jordan Arnolin
Substitution · Henrique Araújo ⇄ Alassana Jatta45'

Half-time0 – 0

Second half

60'Substitution · Milan Robin ⇄ Antef Tsoungui
60'Substitution · Nail Omerovic ⇄ Rafik Guitane
Yellow card · David Sousa62'
Substitution · Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri ⇄ Evans Maurin65'
Substitution · João Pedro ⇄ Benjamin Pauwels65'
70'Goal · Ricard Sanchez Sendra (assist : Jordan Holsgrove)
Goal · Selvi Clua (assist : Lawrence Ofori)72'
Substitution · Selvi Clua ⇄ Sebastián Pérez74'
80'Substitution · Xavier Sintes Egea ⇄ Pedro Carvalho
80'Substitution · João Carvalho ⇄ André Lacximicant
82'Yellow card · Yanis Begraoui
85'Yellow card · Jordan Arnolin
Substitution · João Rego ⇄ Abdu Dafe87'
Goal · Benjamin Pauwels (assist : Sebastián Pérez)89'
Yellow card · Alassana Jatta90+5'

What we announced

2/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Estoril or draw79%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Casa Pia scored in the 89th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Estoril had 14 shots against 11, for 1 goal against 2.
Over 1.5 goals68%held
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Draw or Casa Pia ahead at half-time63%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
One team ahead at half-time59%lost
Estoril to win56%lost
Under 2.5 goals59%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstoril 18th, Casa Pia 17th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match70′ opening goal, Estoril (1-0)
During the match72′ equaliser, Casa Pia (1-1)
During the match89′ turnaround, Casa Pia go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Estoril or draw” goes from 78.7% to 77.1% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes