Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 19 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 19 September at 18:00. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Alverca

1–0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–0

Rio Ave

What Janus-12 said

79%

Alverca or draw

79% success over 43 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Alverca or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 00:35.

Sealed on 19/09, 18:00announced on 05/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 43 matches in this league
65%✗
78% success over 36 matches in this league
63%✗
58% success over 43 matches in this league
53%✓
58% success over 43 matches in this league
62%✓
46% success over 28 matches in this league
54%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Alverca or draw79%held
- Alverca took the lead in the 3rd minute and never let it go.
- Alverca took control early: opening goal in the 3rd minute.
Over 1.5 goals65%lost
- The two teams managed only 9 shots on target in total, for 1 goal.
Draw or Rio Ave ahead at half-time63%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 3′ Alverca.
Alverca to win53%held
One team ahead at half-time62%held
Under 2.5 goals54%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlverca 10th, Rio Ave 16th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match3′ opening goal, Alverca (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0

What it changes

In this league, “Alverca or draw” goes from 79.1% to 79.5% success rate, over 44 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Alverca on the left, Rio Ave on the right.

First half

3'Goal · Dawda Camara Sankharé (assist : Francisco Chiquinho)

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Substitution · Pedro Amaral ⇄ Marios Vrushai59'
Substitution · Roland Galcik ⇄ Sebastian Clemensen59'
68'Substitution · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos ⇄ André Vidigal
68'Substitution · Dawda Camara Sankharé ⇄ Vivaldo Semedo
Substitution · Miguel Patricío ⇄ Malik Sellouki69'
Substitution · João Tomé Baptista ⇄ Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro69'
Substitution · Tamas Nikitscher ⇄ Caike Lourenço Valença69'
74'Substitution · Francisco Chiquinho ⇄ Matheus Franca
84'Substitution · Francisco Chissumba ⇄ Yaya Bojang
84'Substitution · Rayan Lucas ⇄ Zé Rafael
Yellow card · Simón García87'
88'Yellow card · Davy Gui
90+3'Yellow card · André Vidigal
Yellow card · Francisco Petrasso90+5'

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Alverca or draw79%held
- Alverca took the lead in the 3rd minute and never let it go.
- Alverca took control early: opening goal in the 3rd minute.
Over 1.5 goals65%lost
- The two teams managed only 9 shots on target in total, for 1 goal.
Draw or Rio Ave ahead at half-time63%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 3′ Alverca.
Alverca to win53%held
One team ahead at half-time62%held
Under 2.5 goals54%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlverca 10th, Rio Ave 16th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match3′ opening goal, Alverca (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0

What it changes

In this league, “Alverca or draw” goes from 79.1% to 79.5% success rate, over 44 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes