Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Monday, 14 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Monday 14 September at 18:45. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Rio Ave

3–3full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 2–2

Estrela

What Janus-12 said

72%

Draw or Estrela ahead at half-time

81% success over 32 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Draw or Estrela ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 14/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 14/09, 18:45announced on 30/08/2026, 14 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 38 matches in this league
73%✗
79% success over 38 matches in this league
68%✓
58% success over 38 matches in this league
58%✗
48% success over 23 matches in this league
53%✗

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Estrela ahead at half-time72%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 21′ Estrela, 45′ Rio Ave.
Rio Ave or Estrela73%lost
- The two teams managed only 12 shots on target in total, for 6 goals.
Over 1.5 goals68%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time58%lost
Under 2.5 goals53%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableRio Ave 16th, Estrela 8th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match21′ opening goal, Estrela (0-1)
During the match45′ equaliser, Rio Ave (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match53′ Estrela retake the lead (1-2)
During the match56′ equaliser, Rio Ave (2-2)
During the match61′ Estrela retake the lead (2-3)
During the match78′ equaliser, Rio Ave (3-3)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Estrela ahead at half-time” goes from 81.3% to 81.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,517 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Rio Ave on the left, Estrela on the right.

First half

Goal · Ianis Stoica (assist : Leandro Antonetti)21'
Yellow card · Max Scholze26'
44'Yellow card · Francisco Petrasso
45+3'Goal · Francisco Petrasso (assist : Diogo Bezerra)

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

Goal · Abraham Marcus (assist : Max Scholze)53'
54'Substitution · Sebastian Clemensen ⇄ Roland Galcik
56'Goal · Roland Galcik (assist : Diogo Bezerra)
Yellow card · Eddy Doué58'
Goal · Abraham Marcus (assist : Ianis Stoica)61'
63'Substitution · Miguel Patricío ⇄ Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
Substitution · Eddy Doué ⇄ Joan Jordan63'
68'Substitution · João Tomé Baptista ⇄ Nelson Abbey
68'Substitution · Tamas Nikitscher ⇄ Malik Sellouki
68'Substitution · Pedro Amaral ⇄ Marios Vrushai
Substitution · Max Scholze ⇄ Kevin Hoog Jansson71'
Substitution · Santiago Serra ⇄ Jefferson Encada72'
Yellow card · Stefan Lekovic76'
78'Penalty goal · Jalen Blesa
Substitution · Abraham Marcus ⇄ Beni Souza84'
Substitution · Ianis Stoica ⇄ Alisson Souza84'
90+1'Yellow card · Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Estrela ahead at half-time72%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 21′ Estrela, 45′ Rio Ave.
Rio Ave or Estrela73%lost
- The two teams managed only 12 shots on target in total, for 6 goals.
Over 1.5 goals68%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time58%lost
Under 2.5 goals53%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableRio Ave 16th, Estrela 8th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match21′ opening goal, Estrela (0-1)
During the match45′ equaliser, Rio Ave (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match53′ Estrela retake the lead (1-2)
During the match56′ equaliser, Rio Ave (2-2)
During the match61′ Estrela retake the lead (2-3)
During the match78′ equaliser, Rio Ave (3-3)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Estrela ahead at half-time” goes from 81.3% to 81.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,517 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes