Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 12 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 12 September at 15:30. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Nacional

1–3full timeHT 0–3 · 2H 1–0

Alverca

What Janus-12 said

71%

Nacional or Alverca

78% success over 32 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 6 bookmakers

Bet offered: Nacional or Alverca

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 12/09, 15:11.

Sealed on 12/09, 15:30announced on 30/08/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

78% success over 27 matches in this league
70%✓
75% success over 32 matches in this league
66%✓
63% success over 32 matches in this league
56%✓
55% success over 20 matches in this league
60%✗

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Nacional or Alverca71%held
Draw or Alverca ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-3 at half-time, 34′ Alverca, 36′ Alverca, 42′ Alverca.
Over 1.5 goals66%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time56%held
Under 2.5 goals60%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableNacional 15th, Alverca 10th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match34′ opening goal, Alverca (0-1)
During the match36′ Alverca go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-3
During the match81′ last goal, Nacional
Line-up81′ the goal came off the bench: Matchoi Djaló (Nacional)

What it changes

In this league, “Nacional or Alverca” goes from 78.1% to 78.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,609 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Nacional on the left, Alverca on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Yaya Bojang18'
Goal · Francisco Chissumba (assist : Francisco Chiquinho)34'
Goal · Dawda Camara Sankharé (assist : Diogo Spencer)36'
Goal · Dawda Camara Sankharé (assist : Diogo Spencer)42'
45'Substitution · Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior ⇄ Matchoi Djaló
45'Substitution · Markus Jensen ⇄ Song Min-kyu

Half-time0 – 3

Second half

Yellow card · Dawda Camara Sankharé48'
54'Substitution · Matheus dos Santos Dias ⇄ Chiheb Labidi
Substitution · Francisco Chiquinho ⇄ Matheus Franca65'
Substitution · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos ⇄ André Vidigal66'
69'Substitution · Stavros Gavriel ⇄ Allen Obando
Substitution · Dawda Camara Sankharé ⇄ Vivaldo Semedo72'
Yellow card · Diogo Spencer73'
78'Substitution · Pablo Ruan ⇄ Fernando Nava Ortega
Substitution · Davy Gui ⇄ Rayan Lucas79'
Substitution · Isaac James ⇄ Cedric Nuozzi79'
81'Goal · Matchoi Djaló

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Nacional or Alverca71%held
Draw or Alverca ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-3 at half-time, 34′ Alverca, 36′ Alverca, 42′ Alverca.
Over 1.5 goals66%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time56%held
Under 2.5 goals60%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableNacional 15th, Alverca 10th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match34′ opening goal, Alverca (0-1)
During the match36′ Alverca go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-3
During the match81′ last goal, Nacional
Line-up81′ the goal came off the bench: Matchoi Djaló (Nacional)

What it changes

In this league, “Nacional or Alverca” goes from 78.1% to 78.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,609 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes