Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Monday, 14 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Monday 14 September at 20:15. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Moreirense

3–1full timeHT 2–0 · 2H 1–1

Maritimo

What Janus-12 said

67%

Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time

81% success over 32 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 33 %

A prediction at 67 % fails 33 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 14/09, 18:01.

Sealed on 14/09, 20:15announced on 30/08/2026, 15 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 38 matches in this league
74%✓
79% success over 38 matches in this league
65%✓
58% success over 38 matches in this league
58%✓
48% success over 23 matches in this league
59%✗

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time67%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 17′ Moreirense, 28′ Moreirense.
Moreirense or draw74%held
- Moreirense took the lead in the 17th minute and never let it go.
- Moreirense took control early: opening goal in the 17th minute.
Over 1.5 goals65%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 17th minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time58%held
Under 2.5 goals59%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableMoreirense 12th, Maritimo 11th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match17′ opening goal, Moreirense (1-0)
During the match28′ Moreirense go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match86′ last goal, Moreirense

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time” goes from 81.3% to 78.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,546 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Moreirense on the left, Maritimo on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Rodri Andrade8'
11'Yellow card · Kiko Bondoso
17'Goal · Manuel Mendonça (assist : Tiago Andrade)
28'Goal · Leonardo Vonić (assist : Kiko Bondoso)
Substitution · Rodri Andrade ⇄ Maxime Dominguez45'
Substitution · Bryan Limbombe ⇄ Israel Isaac Ayuma45'

Half-time2 – 0

Second half

Yellow card · Maxime Dominguez59'
61'Substitution · Leonardo Vonić ⇄ Alexandre Parsemain
61'Substitution · Kiko Bondoso ⇄ Landerson Costa Araújo
69'Substitution · Nile John ⇄ Rodrigo Alonso
Substitution · Vladan Danilović ⇄ Samuel Bamba71'
Goal · Romain Correia79'
81'Substitution · Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga ⇄ Kevyn Monteiro
81'Substitution · Manuel Mendonça ⇄ Chipyoka Songa
Substitution · Raphael Guzzo ⇄ Mons Rogeani Bassouamina81'
Substitution · Martín Tejón ⇄ Maurice Boakye81'
86'Penalty goal · Alexandre Parsemain
Yellow card · Israel Isaac Ayuma90+3'

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time67%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 17′ Moreirense, 28′ Moreirense.
Moreirense or draw74%held
- Moreirense took the lead in the 17th minute and never let it go.
- Moreirense took control early: opening goal in the 17th minute.
Over 1.5 goals65%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 17th minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time58%held
Under 2.5 goals59%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableMoreirense 12th, Maritimo 11th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match17′ opening goal, Moreirense (1-0)
During the match28′ Moreirense go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match86′ last goal, Moreirense

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time” goes from 81.3% to 78.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,546 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes