Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Sunday, 13 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 13 September at 20:30. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Famalicao

1–1full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 1–1

Sp Lisbon

What Janus-12 said

87%

Draw or Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time

81% success over 31 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 13/09, 04:08.

Sealed on 13/09, 20:30announced on 30/08/2026, 14 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

78% success over 37 matches in this league
90%✓
78% success over 37 matches in this league
77%✓
71% success over 14 matches in this league
53%✗
59% success over 37 matches in this league
73%✗
59% success over 37 matches in this league
63%✗

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time87%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Draw or Sp Lisbon90%held
- Sp Lisbon were never behind.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 5 shots on target for Sp Lisbon against 2.
Over 1.5 goals77%held
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals53%lost
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 7 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
Sp Lisbon to win73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Famalicao scored in the 90th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Sp Lisbon had 16 shots against 5, for 1 goal against 1.
One team ahead at half-time63%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFamalicao 13th, Sp Lisbon 3rd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match81′ opening goal, Sp Lisbon (0-1)
During the match87′ sending-off, Famalicao (Roméo Beney)
During the match90′ equaliser, Famalicao (1-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time” goes from 80.6% to 81.3% success rate, over 32 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,367 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Famalicao on the left, Sp Lisbon on the right.

First half

VAR: Goal cancelled · Flávio Gonçalves27'
45'Substitution · Gil Dias ⇄ Roméo Beney
45+1'Yellow card · Gil Dias

Half-time0 – 0

Second half

60'Substitution · Georgios Koutsias ⇄ Umar Abubakar
Substitution · Luís Guilherme ⇄ Rodrigo Zalazar64'
Substitution · Flávio Gonçalves ⇄ Fotis Ioannidis64'
Yellow card · Geny Catamo73'
Substitution · Issa Doumbia ⇄ Silas Andersen75'
Substitution · Geny Catamo ⇄ Nestory Irankunda75'
78'Yellow card · Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
80'Yellow card · Carlos Augusto Soares da Costa Faria Carvalhal
Penalty goal · Luis Suárez81'
82'Substitution · Marcos Peña ⇄ Patricio Salas
83'Substitution · Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura ⇄ Óscar Aranda Subiela
Yellow card · Luis Suárez86'
87'Red card · Roméo Beney
Yellow card · Nestory Irankunda90'
90+1'Own goal · Gonçalo Inácio
Yellow card · Iván Fresneda90+7'

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time87%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Draw or Sp Lisbon90%held
- Sp Lisbon were never behind.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 5 shots on target for Sp Lisbon against 2.
Over 1.5 goals77%held
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals53%lost
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 7 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
Sp Lisbon to win73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Famalicao scored in the 90th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Sp Lisbon had 16 shots against 5, for 1 goal against 1.
One team ahead at half-time63%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFamalicao 13th, Sp Lisbon 3rd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match81′ opening goal, Sp Lisbon (0-1)
During the match87′ sending-off, Famalicao (Roméo Beney)
During the match90′ equaliser, Famalicao (1-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time” goes from 80.6% to 81.3% success rate, over 32 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,367 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes