Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 12 September 2026

Match brought forward

Brought forward to Saturday 12 September at 18:00. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Casa Pia

1-4full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 0–3

Porto

What Janus-12 said

92%

Draw or Porto

79% success over 33 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Porto

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 12/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 12/09, 18:00announced on 30/08/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 28 matches in this league
92%✓
76% success over 33 matches in this league
79%✓
67% success over 12 matches in this league
57%✓
64% success over 33 matches in this league
64%✗
58% success over 33 matches in this league
76%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

5/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Porto92%held
Draw or Porto ahead at half-time92%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 43′ Casa Pia, 45′ Porto.
Over 1.5 goals79%held
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals57%held
One team ahead at half-time64%lost
Porto to win76%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCasa Pia 17th, Porto 1st (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match43′ opening goal, Casa Pia (1-0)
During the match45′ equaliser, Porto (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match60′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (1-2)
During the match66′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (1-3)
Line-up66′ the goal came off the bench: Borja Sainz (Porto)
During the match90′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (1-4)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Porto” goes from 78.8% to 79.4% success rate, over 34 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,609 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Casa Pia on the left, Porto on the right.

First half

43'Penalty goal · Henrique Araújo
Yellow card · Jakub Kiwior45'
Goal · André Silva (assist : Pablo Rosario)45+3'

Half-time1 - 1

Second half

53'Yellow card · Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira
54'Yellow card · Andre Geraldes
Goal · Jakub Kiwior (assist : Gabri Veiga)60'
Substitution · William Gomes ⇄ Borja Sainz62'
Substitution · André Silva ⇄ Santiago Giménez62'
Goal · Borja Sainz66'
68'Substitution · Benjamin Pauwels ⇄ Evans Maurin
Substitution · Hwang In-Beom ⇄ Alan Gonzalo Varela70'
74'Substitution · Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri ⇄ João Pedro
74'Substitution · Henrique Araújo ⇄ Cassiano
Substitution · Gabri Veiga ⇄ Seko Fofana80'
Substitution · Alberto Costa ⇄ Martim Fernandes80'
87'Yellow card · David Sousa
88'Substitution · João Rego ⇄ Aymen Zouin
90'Yellow card · Ivan Mandic
Penalty goal · Santiago Giménez90+1'

What we announced

5/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Porto92%held
Draw or Porto ahead at half-time92%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 43′ Casa Pia, 45′ Porto.
Over 1.5 goals79%held
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals57%held
One team ahead at half-time64%lost
Porto to win76%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCasa Pia 17th, Porto 1st (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match43′ opening goal, Casa Pia (1-0)
During the match45′ equaliser, Porto (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match60′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (1-2)
During the match66′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (1-3)
Line-up66′ the goal came off the bench: Borja Sainz (Porto)
During the match90′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (1-4)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Porto” goes from 78.8% to 79.4% success rate, over 34 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,609 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes