Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Sunday, 13 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 13 September at 18:00. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Arouca

1–2full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 1–0

Santa Clara

What Janus-12 said

69%

Arouca or draw

80% success over 35 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 31 %

A prediction at 69 % fails 31 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 8 bookmakers

Bet offered: Arouca or draw

1xBet
BetPawa
Betsson
Betwinner
MelBet
Paripesa
PMUC
SportyBet

Open a Betwinner account

Promo code: janus-12

Partner link: Janus-12 is paid for accounts opened with this link or code.

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 13/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 13/09, 18:00announced on 30/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

80% success over 30 matches in this league
70%✓
77% success over 35 matches in this league
72%✓
60% success over 35 matches in this league
54%✓
50% success over 22 matches in this league
56%✗

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Arouca or draw69%lost
- Arouca chased the score almost all match: Santa Clara scored as early as the 22nd minute.
Draw or Santa Clara ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 22′ Santa Clara, 36′ Santa Clara.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time54%held
Under 2.5 goals56%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableArouca 5th, Santa Clara 4th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match22′ opening goal, Santa Clara (0-1)
During the match36′ Santa Clara go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2
During the match85′ sending-off, Santa Clara (Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro)

What it changes

In this league, “Arouca or draw” goes from 80% to 77.8% success rate, over 36 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Arouca on the left, Santa Clara on the right.

First half

Goal · Gonçalo Paciência (assist : José Tavares)22'
23'Substitution · Pablo Gozálbez ⇄ Mateo Flores
Yellow card · Emanuel Moreira33'
Goal · José Tavares (assist : Pedro Pacheco)36'

Half-time0 – 2

Second half

46'Goal · Iván Barbero (assist : Näis Djouahra)
54'Yellow card · Näis Djouahra
Substitution · José Tavares ⇄ Dani Borges62'
64'Yellow card · Vasco César Freire de Seabra
Yellow card · Tiago Ribeiro65'
65'Yellow card · Espen van Ee
68'Substitution · Espen van Ee ⇄ Pedro Santos
68'Substitution · Näis Djouahra ⇄ Gabrijel Rukavina
Yellow card · Pedro Ferreira72'
Substitution · Tiago Ribeiro ⇄ Henrique Silva73'
Substitution · Brenner Lucas Goncalves Santos ⇄ Welinton Torrão73'
Substitution · Gonçalo Paciência ⇄ Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira73'
81'Substitution · Alfonso Trezza ⇄ Brian Mansilla
81'Substitution · Orest Lebedenko ⇄ Fally Mayulu
Substitution · Vinicius lopes ⇄ Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro82'
Yellow card · Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro84'
Red card · Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro85'
87'Yellow card · Gabrijel Rukavina

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Arouca or draw69%lost
- Arouca chased the score almost all match: Santa Clara scored as early as the 22nd minute.
Draw or Santa Clara ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 22′ Santa Clara, 36′ Santa Clara.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time54%held
Under 2.5 goals56%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableArouca 5th, Santa Clara 4th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match22′ opening goal, Santa Clara (0-1)
During the match36′ Santa Clara go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2
During the match85′ sending-off, Santa Clara (Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro)

What it changes

In this league, “Arouca or draw” goes from 80% to 77.8% success rate, over 36 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes