Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 5 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 5 September at 20:30. Originally planned for Sunday 6 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Sp Lisbon

2–0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 1–0

Nacional

What Janus-12 said

96%

Sp Lisbon or draw

82% success over 34 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Sp Lisbon or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/09, 04:09.

Sealed on 05/09, 20:30announced on 23/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

80% success over 25 matches in this league
90%✓
75% success over 8 matches in this league
70%✗
64% success over 25 matches in this league
77%✓
53% success over 34 matches in this league
88%✓
50% success over 4 matches in this league
68%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

5/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Sp Lisbon or draw96%held
- Sp Lisbon took the lead in the 32nd minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Sp Lisbon against 2.
Over 1.5 goals90%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals70%lost
- The two teams managed only 10 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
One team ahead at half-time77%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 32′ Sp Lisbon.
Sp Lisbon to win88%held
Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time68%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSp Lisbon 3rd, Nacional 15th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match32′ opening goal, Sp Lisbon (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match49′ Sp Lisbon go 2 goals up (2-0)

What it changes

In this league, “Sp Lisbon or draw” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 595,299 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Sp Lisbon on the left, Nacional on the right.

First half

5'Yellow card · Maximiliano Araujo
20'Yellow card · Sergi Altimira
32'Penalty goal · Luis Suárez
Substitution · Léo Santos ⇄ Deivison Souza Brito45'

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Yellow card · Markus Jensen48'
49'Goal · Flávio Gonçalves (assist : Luis Suárez)
Substitution · Pablo Ruan ⇄ Allen Obando62'
Substitution · Markus Jensen ⇄ Chiheb Labidi62'
67'Substitution · Geny Catamo ⇄ Luís Guilherme
67'Substitution · Rodrigo Zalazar ⇄ Nestory Irankunda
67'Substitution · Luis Suárez ⇄ Fotis Ioannidis
Substitution · Stavros Gavriel ⇄ Matchoi Djaló73'
78'Substitution · Maximiliano Araujo ⇄ Georgios Vagiannidis
Substitution · Miguel Baeza ⇄ Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior80'
87'Substitution · Sergi Altimira ⇄ Silas Andersen

What we announced

5/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Sp Lisbon or draw96%held
- Sp Lisbon took the lead in the 32nd minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Sp Lisbon against 2.
Over 1.5 goals90%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals70%lost
- The two teams managed only 10 shots on target in total, for 2 goals.
One team ahead at half-time77%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 32′ Sp Lisbon.
Sp Lisbon to win88%held
Sp Lisbon ahead at half-time68%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSp Lisbon 3rd, Nacional 15th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match32′ opening goal, Sp Lisbon (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match49′ Sp Lisbon go 2 goals up (2-0)

What it changes

In this league, “Sp Lisbon or draw” goes from 82.4% to 82.9% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 595,299 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes