Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 5 September 2026

Match brought forward

Brought forward to Saturday 5 September at 18:00. Originally planned for Sunday 6 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Maritimo

0-3full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 0–2

Benfica

What Janus-12 said

92%

Draw or Benfica

81% success over 32 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Draw or Benfica

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 05/09, 18:00announced on 23/08/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 19 matches in this league
89%✓
78% success over 23 matches in this league
82%✓
71% success over 7 matches in this league
64%✓
61% success over 23 matches in this league
68%✓
50% success over 32 matches in this league
78%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

6/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Benfica92%held
- Benfica took the lead in the 7th minute and never let it go.
- Benfica took control early: opening goal in the 7th minute.
Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time89%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 7′ Benfica.
Over 1.5 goals82%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 7th minute, 3 in total.
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals64%held
One team ahead at half-time68%held
Benfica to win78%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableMaritimo 11th, Benfica 2nd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match7′ opening goal, Benfica (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match71′ Benfica go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match82′ last goal, Benfica

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Benfica” goes from 81.3% to 81.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Maritimo on the left, Benfica on the right.

First half

Goal · Leandro Barreiro7'
Substitution · Alexander Bah ⇄ Jakub Kamiński17'
40'Yellow card · Vladan Danilović
Yellow card · Heorhii Sudakov41'
42'Yellow card · Igor Julião

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

Yellow card · Tomás Araújo61'
Substitution · Heorhii Sudakov ⇄ Andreas Schjelderup62'
Substitution · Rafa Silva ⇄ Alessandro Circati62'
66'Substitution · Vladan Danilović ⇄ Israel Isaac Ayuma
66'Substitution · Bryan Limbombe ⇄ Samuel Bamba
Yellow card · Alessandro Circati66'
Goal · Leandro Barreiro (assist : Vangelis Pavlidis)71'
78'Substitution · Igor Julião ⇄ Nilton Varela
78'Substitution · Adrián Butzke ⇄ Maurice Boakye
Substitution · Vangelis Pavlidis ⇄ Jhon Durán82'
Substitution · João Palhinha ⇄ Enzo Barrenechea82'
Goal · Gianluca Prestianni82'
90+2'Substitution · Raphael Guzzo ⇄ Maxime Dominguez

What we announced

6/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Benfica92%held
- Benfica took the lead in the 7th minute and never let it go.
- Benfica took control early: opening goal in the 7th minute.
Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time89%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 7′ Benfica.
Over 1.5 goals82%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 7th minute, 3 in total.
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals64%held
One team ahead at half-time68%held
Benfica to win78%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableMaritimo 11th, Benfica 2nd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match7′ opening goal, Benfica (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match71′ Benfica go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the match82′ last goal, Benfica

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Benfica” goes from 81.3% to 81.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes