Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Friday, 4 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Friday 4 September at 20:15. Originally planned for Sunday 6 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Porto

2–1full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 1–0

Moreirense

What Janus-12 said

96%

Porto or draw

83% success over 30 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Porto or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/09, 04:48.

Sealed on 04/09, 20:15announced on 23/08/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

76% success over 21 matches in this league
86%✓
67% success over 6 matches in this league
64%✓
67% success over 3 matches in this league
68%✗
62% success over 21 matches in this league
75%✗
50% success over 30 matches in this league
87%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Porto or draw96%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 9 shots on target for Porto against 2.
Over 1.5 goals86%held
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 20th minute, 3 in total.
Over 2.5 goals64%held
Porto ahead at half-time68%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 20′ Moreirense, 37′ Porto.
One team ahead at half-time75%lost
Porto to win87%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePorto 1st, Moreirense 12th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match20′ opening goal, Moreirense (0-1)
During the match37′ equaliser, Porto (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match58′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (2-1)
During the match90′ sending-off, Moreirense (Guilherme Liberato)

What it changes

In this league, “Porto or draw” goes from 83.3% to 83.9% success rate, over 31 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,869 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Porto on the left, Moreirense on the right.

First half

Goal · Dinis Pinto20'
37'Goal · Jan Bednarek (assist : William Gomes)
Yellow card · João Veloso44'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

58'Goal · William Gomes (assist : Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa)
63'Yellow card · Francisco Moura
64'Substitution · Gabri Veiga ⇄ Hwang In-Beom
64'Substitution · Francisco Moura ⇄ Martim Fernandes
Substitution · Manuel Mendonça ⇄ Rodrigo Alonso67'
Substitution · Nile John ⇄ Mateja Stjepanović67'
Yellow card · Dinis Pinto68'
Substitution · Landerson Costa Araújo ⇄ Tiago Andrade75'
Substitution · João Veloso ⇄ Kiko Bondoso75'
75'Substitution · William Gomes ⇄ Borja Sainz
75'Substitution · André Silva ⇄ Santiago Giménez
Substitution · Alexandre Parsemain ⇄ Yan Maranhão79'
VAR: Card upgrade cancelled · Guilherme Liberato88'
Red card · Guilherme Liberato90'
90'Substitution · Victor Froholdt ⇄ Seko Fofana
90+1'Substitution · Alberto Costa ⇄ Nehuén Pérez
Substitution · Dinis Pinto ⇄ Leandro Santos90+3'

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Porto or draw96%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 9 shots on target for Porto against 2.
Over 1.5 goals86%held
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 20th minute, 3 in total.
Over 2.5 goals64%held
Porto ahead at half-time68%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 20′ Moreirense, 37′ Porto.
One team ahead at half-time75%lost
Porto to win87%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePorto 1st, Moreirense 12th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match20′ opening goal, Moreirense (0-1)
During the match37′ equaliser, Porto (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match58′ turnaround, Porto go ahead (2-1)
During the match90′ sending-off, Moreirense (Guilherme Liberato)

What it changes

In this league, “Porto or draw” goes from 83.3% to 83.9% success rate, over 31 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,869 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes