Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 5 September 2026

Match brought forward

Brought forward to Saturday 5 September at 15:30. Originally planned for Sunday 6 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Estrela

2-2full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 2–1

Famalicao

What Janus-12 said

69%

Estrela or Famalicao

84% success over 31 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 31 %

A prediction at 69 % fails 31 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 8 bookmakers

Bet offered: Estrela or Famalicao

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/09, 03:40.

Sealed on 05/09, 15:30announced on 23/08/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

78% success over 18 matches in this league
74%✓
77% success over 22 matches in this league
71%✓
60% success over 15 matches in this league
57%✗
59% success over 22 matches in this league
56%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Estrela or Famalicao69%lost
- The two teams managed only 8 shots on target in total, for 4 goals.
Draw or Famalicao ahead at half-time74%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 2′ Famalicao.
Over 1.5 goals71%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 2nd minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 2.5 goals57%lost
One team ahead at half-time56%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstrela 8th, Famalicao 13th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match2′ opening goal, Famalicao (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match57′ equaliser, Estrela (1-1)
During the match69′ turnaround, Estrela go ahead (2-1)
During the match80′ equaliser, Famalicao (2-2)
During the match90′ sending-off, Estrela (Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe)

What it changes

In this league, “Estrela or Famalicao” goes from 83.9% to 81.3% success rate, over 32 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Estrela on the left, Famalicao on the right.

First half

Goal · Georgios Koutsias (assist : Mathias De Amorim)2'
29'Yellow card · Max Scholze
32'Substitution · Emerson Vanga ⇄ Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho
45'Substitution · Ianis Stoica ⇄ Beni Souza

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

53'Yellow card · Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho
57'Goal · Leandro Antonetti (assist : Beni Souza)
Yellow card · Marcos Peña66'
Substitution · Marcos Peña ⇄ Pedro Santos68'
Substitution · Roméo Beney ⇄ Gil Dias68'
69'Goal · Max Scholze
Substitution · Pedro Bondo Francisco ⇄ Leny Remo Meyer74'
Substitution · Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura ⇄ Óscar Aranda Subiela74'
Penalty goal · Georgios Koutsias80'
81'Substitution · Max Scholze ⇄ Jefferson Encada
Substitution · Georgios Koutsias ⇄ Umar Abubakar83'
89'Substitution · Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho ⇄ Joan Jordan
89'Substitution · Leandro Antonetti ⇄ Alisson Souza
Yellow card · Leny Remo Meyer90'
90+4'Red card · Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe
90+4'Yellow card · David Grilo

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Estrela or Famalicao69%lost
- The two teams managed only 8 shots on target in total, for 4 goals.
Draw or Famalicao ahead at half-time74%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 2′ Famalicao.
Over 1.5 goals71%held
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 2nd minute, 4 in total.
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 2.5 goals57%lost
One team ahead at half-time56%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEstrela 8th, Famalicao 13th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match2′ opening goal, Famalicao (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match57′ equaliser, Estrela (1-1)
During the match69′ turnaround, Estrela go ahead (2-1)
During the match80′ equaliser, Famalicao (2-2)
During the match90′ sending-off, Estrela (Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe)

What it changes

In this league, “Estrela or Famalicao” goes from 83.9% to 81.3% success rate, over 32 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes