Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 5 September 2026

Match brought forward

Brought forward to Saturday 5 September at 18:00. Originally planned for Sunday 6 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Alverca

1-2full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 0–2

Sp Braga

What Janus-12 said

82%

Draw or Sp Braga

81% success over 32 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Draw or Sp Braga

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 05/09, 18:00announced on 23/08/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 19 matches in this league
84%✗
78% success over 23 matches in this league
72%✓
61% success over 23 matches in this league
57%✓
56% success over 16 matches in this league
53%✗
50% success over 32 matches in this league
60%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Sp Braga82%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 6 shots on target for Sp Braga against 2.
Draw or Sp Braga ahead at half-time84%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 27′ Alverca.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time57%held
Under 2.5 goals53%lost
Sp Braga to win60%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlverca 10th, Sp Braga 6th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match27′ opening goal, Alverca (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match50′ equaliser, Sp Braga (1-1)
During the match57′ turnaround, Sp Braga go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Sp Braga” goes from 81.3% to 81.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Alverca on the left, Sp Braga on the right.

First half

27'Penalty goal · Francisco Chiquinho
Yellow card · Adrian Bajrami40'
Substitution · Diogo Martins Travassos ⇄ Gabriel Martínez Aguilera45'
Substitution · Adrian Bajrami ⇄ Sergio Barcia45'
Substitution · Diego Henrique ⇄ Fra Navarro45'
45+3'Yellow card · Ian Luccas

Half-time1 - 0

Second half

Goal · Pau Victor (assist : Demir Ege Tıknaz)50'
53'Substitution · Rayan Lucas ⇄ Davy Gui
53'Substitution · Vivaldo Semedo ⇄ Dawda Camara Sankharé
Goal · Pau Victor57'
Substitution · Mario Dorgeles ⇄ Tommy Marqués64'
Yellow card · Pau Victor66'
71'Substitution · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos ⇄ André Vidigal
71'Substitution · Ian Luccas ⇄ Zakaria Kassary
83'Substitution · Sergi Gómez ⇄ Cedric Nuozzi
Substitution · Demir Ege Tıknaz ⇄ Jovan Milosevic83'
Yellow card · Gabriel Martínez Aguilera87'
Yellow card · Gustaf Lagerbielke90+1'

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Sp Braga82%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 6 shots on target for Sp Braga against 2.
Draw or Sp Braga ahead at half-time84%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 27′ Alverca.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
- The two teams had 8 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time57%held
Under 2.5 goals53%lost
Sp Braga to win60%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlverca 10th, Sp Braga 6th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match27′ opening goal, Alverca (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match50′ equaliser, Sp Braga (1-1)
During the match57′ turnaround, Sp Braga go ahead (1-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Sp Braga” goes from 81.3% to 81.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes