Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Sunday, 30 August 2026

Casa Pia

0-1full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 0–0

Moreirense

What Janus-12 said

66%

Over 1.5 goals

88% success over 17 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 34 %

A prediction at 66 % fails 34 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Over 1.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 30/08, 09:51.

Sealed on 30/08, 18:00announced on 16/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

81% success over 26 matches in this league
70%✓
73% success over 15 matches in this league
70%✓
65% success over 17 matches in this league
57%✓
50% success over 12 matches in this league
57%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Over 1.5 goals66%lost
- The two teams managed only 7 shots on target in total, for 1 goal.
- The volume of chances went no further: 0.97 expected goals in total.
Draw or Moreirense70%held
- Moreirense took the lead in the 24th minute and never let it go.
- Moreirense took control early: opening goal in the 24th minute.
Draw or Moreirense ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 24′ Moreirense.
One team ahead at half-time57%held
Under 2.5 goals57%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCasa Pia 17th, Moreirense 12th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match24′ opening goal, Moreirense (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1

What it changes

In this league, “Over 1.5 goals” goes from 88.2% to 83.3% success rate, over 18 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Casa Pia on the left, Moreirense on the right.

First half

Goal · Kiko (assist : J. Veloso)24'

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

46'Substitution · Rochinha ⇄ A. Dafe
61'Yellow card · P. Rosas
61'Substitution · K. Prieto ⇄ Cassiano
Yellow card · Kiko62'
Substitution · N. John ⇄ Rodri65'
Substitution · Landerson ⇄ T. Andrade65'
Yellow card · Rodri71'
Yellow card · Aranha75'
Substitution · Kiko ⇄ L. Santos77'
78'Substitution · S. Clua ⇄ S. Perez
Substitution · M. Mendonca ⇄ M. Stjepanovic78'
78'Substitution · J. Rego ⇄ B. Pauwels
78'Substitution · A. Jatta ⇄ H. Araujo
Substitution · J. Veloso ⇄ Kevyn Monteiro82'

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Over 1.5 goals66%lost
- The two teams managed only 7 shots on target in total, for 1 goal.
- The volume of chances went no further: 0.97 expected goals in total.
Draw or Moreirense70%held
- Moreirense took the lead in the 24th minute and never let it go.
- Moreirense took control early: opening goal in the 24th minute.
Draw or Moreirense ahead at half-time70%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 24′ Moreirense.
One team ahead at half-time57%held
Under 2.5 goals57%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCasa Pia 17th, Moreirense 12th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match24′ opening goal, Moreirense (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1

What it changes

In this league, “Over 1.5 goals” goes from 88.2% to 83.3% success rate, over 18 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes