Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Monday, 31 August 2026

Benfica

2–1full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 1–1

Estoril

What Janus-12 said

96%

Benfica or draw

82% success over 28 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 1 bookmaker

Bet offered: Benfica or draw

1xBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 01/09, 00:01.

Sealed on 31/08, 18:45announced on 17/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

79% success over 19 matches in this league
90%✓
63% success over 19 matches in this league
76%✓
60% success over 5 matches in this league
74%✓
50% success over 2 matches in this league
65%✓
46% success over 28 matches in this league
87%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

6/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Benfica or draw96%held
- Benfica took the lead in the 40th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Benfica against 2.
Over 1.5 goals90%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
- The chances said so: 2.39 expected goals in total.
One team ahead at half-time76%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 40′ Benfica.
Over 2.5 goals74%held
Benfica ahead at half-time65%held
Benfica to win87%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBenfica 2nd, Estoril 18th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match40′ opening goal, Benfica (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match51′ Benfica go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match82′ last goal, Estoril

What it changes

In this league, “Benfica or draw” goes from 82.1% to 82.8% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,024 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Benfica on the left, Estoril on the right.

First half

31'Substitution · E. Barrenechea ⇄ J. Palhinha
40'Goal · V. Pavlidis

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

Substitution · Xeka ⇄ J. Holsgrove46'
51'Goal · C. Lenglet (assist : T. Araujo)
63'Substitution · Rafa Silva ⇄ A. Schjelderup
Substitution · A. Lacximicant ⇄ Peixinho71'
Substitution · S. Andreou ⇄ F. Garcia72'
Substitution · R. Sanchez ⇄ P. Carvalho72'
Yellow card · I. Sierra75'
80'Substitution · V. Pavlidis ⇄ J. Duran
80'Substitution · G. Sudakov ⇄ G. Moreira
80'Substitution · G. Prestianni ⇄ D. Lukebakio
Goal · Y. Begraoui (assist : F. Medrano)82'
Substitution · F. Medrano ⇄ R. Guitane82'

What we announced

6/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Benfica or draw96%held
- Benfica took the lead in the 40th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Benfica against 2.
Over 1.5 goals90%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
- The chances said so: 2.39 expected goals in total.
One team ahead at half-time76%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 40′ Benfica.
Over 2.5 goals74%held
Benfica ahead at half-time65%held
Benfica to win87%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBenfica 2nd, Estoril 18th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match40′ opening goal, Benfica (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match51′ Benfica go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match82′ last goal, Estoril

What it changes

In this league, “Benfica or draw” goes from 82.1% to 82.8% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,024 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes