Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Saturday, 29 August 2026

Arouca

2-1full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 1–0

Maritimo

What Janus-12 said

79%

Arouca or draw

86% success over 22 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Arouca or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 29/08, 06:07.

Sealed on 29/08, 15:30announced on 15/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

85% success over 13 matches in this league
72%✓
77% success over 13 matches in this league
58%✗
64% success over 11 matches in this league
62%✓
63% success over 8 matches in this league
50%✗
45% success over 22 matches in this league
53%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Arouca or draw79%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 7 shots on target for Arouca against 4.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time58%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 27′ Maritimo, 44′ Arouca.
Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time62%held
Under 2.5 goals50%lost
Arouca to win53%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableArouca 5th, Maritimo 11th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match27′ opening goal, Maritimo (0-1)
During the match44′ equaliser, Arouca (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match55′ turnaround, Arouca go ahead (2-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Arouca or draw” goes from 86.4% to 87% success rate, over 23 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,332 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Arouca on the left, Maritimo on the right.

First half

Goal · Martín Tejón27'
44'Goal · Espen van Ee (assist : Alfonso Trezza)
Yellow card · Raphael Guzzo44'

Half-time1 - 1

Second half

55'Goal · Iván Barbero (assist : Pablo Gozálbez)
Substitution · Bryan Limbombe ⇄ Samuel Bamba62'
70'Substitution · Alfonso Trezza ⇄ Dylan Nandín
70'Substitution · Iván Barbero ⇄ Brian Mansilla
75'Yellow card · Dylan Nandín
Substitution · Adrián Butzke ⇄ Israel Isaac Ayuma78'
Substitution · Vladan Danilović ⇄ Maurice Boakye78'
79'Substitution · Pablo Gozálbez ⇄ Mateo Flores
79'Substitution · Espen van Ee ⇄ Pedro Santos
87'Substitution · Näis Djouahra ⇄ Mario Climent
Substitution · Rafael Fernandes ⇄ Nilton Varela87'
90+2'Yellow card · Javi Sánchez

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Arouca or draw79%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 7 shots on target for Arouca against 4.
Over 1.5 goals72%held
- The two teams had 11 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time58%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 27′ Maritimo, 44′ Arouca.
Draw or Maritimo ahead at half-time62%held
Under 2.5 goals50%lost
Arouca to win53%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableArouca 5th, Maritimo 11th (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match27′ opening goal, Maritimo (0-1)
During the match44′ equaliser, Arouca (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match55′ turnaround, Arouca go ahead (2-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Arouca or draw” goes from 86.4% to 87% success rate, over 23 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,332 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes