Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primeira Liga · Portugal

full time

Wednesday, 9 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Wednesday 9 September at 20:45. Originally planned for Wednesday 9 September at 20:15.

Change noted on 03/09.

Moreirense

0-4full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 0–3

Benfica

What Janus-12 said

91%

Draw or Benfica

79% success over 39 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 8 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Benfica

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 09/09, 06:01.

Sealed on 09/09, 20:45announced on 27/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

76% success over 25 matches in this league
87%✓
73% success over 30 matches in this league
81%✓
63% success over 30 matches in this league
66%✓
60% success over 10 matches in this league
61%✓
51% success over 39 matches in this league
75%✓

Primeira Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	0	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	-7	2

What we announced

6/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Benfica91%held
- Benfica took the lead in the 45th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 9 shots on target for Benfica against 1.
Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time87%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 45′ Benfica.
Over 1.5 goals81%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time66%held
Over 2.5 goals61%held
Benfica to win75%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableMoreirense 12th, Benfica 2nd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match45′ opening goal, Benfica (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match55′ Benfica go 2 goals up (0-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Benfica” goes from 79.5% to 80% success rate, over 40 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,160 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Moreirense on the left, Benfica on the right.

First half

42'Yellow card · Gilberto Batista
VAR: Penalty confirmed · Clément Lenglet45'
45+3'Yellow card · Alexandre Parsemain
Penalty goal · Vangelis Pavlidis45+4'

Half-time0 - 1

Second half

52'Yellow card · Landerson Costa Araújo
Goal · Andreas Schjelderup (assist : Gianluca Prestianni)55'
56'Substitution · Alexandre Parsemain ⇄ Yan Maranhão
56'Substitution · Landerson Costa Araújo ⇄ Tiago Andrade
Goal · Gianluca Prestianni (assist : Andreas Schjelderup)59'
66'Substitution · Dinis Pinto ⇄ Leandro Santos
66'Substitution · Nile John ⇄ Kiko Bondoso
Substitution · Vangelis Pavlidis ⇄ Jhon Durán66'
Substitution · Leandro Barreiro ⇄ Fredrik Aursnes66'
Substitution · Gianluca Prestianni ⇄ Dodi Lukebakio66'
Goal · Fredrik Aursnes (assist : Andreas Schjelderup)72'
Yellow card · João Palhinha75'
Substitution · Samuel Dahl ⇄ Souffian El Karouani78'
79'Substitution · Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga ⇄ Kevyn Monteiro
Substitution · Rafa Silva ⇄ Heorhii Sudakov86'
87'Yellow card · Mateja Stjepanović
Yellow card · Jhon Durán90+1'

What we announced

6/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Benfica91%held
- Benfica took the lead in the 45th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 9 shots on target for Benfica against 1.
Draw or Benfica ahead at half-time87%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-1 at half-time, 45′ Benfica.
Over 1.5 goals81%held
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
One team ahead at half-time66%held
Over 2.5 goals61%held
Benfica to win75%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableMoreirense 12th, Benfica 2nd (Primeira Liga)

During the match

During the match45′ opening goal, Benfica (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match55′ Benfica go 2 goals up (0-2)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Benfica” goes from 79.5% to 80% success rate, over 40 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,160 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primeira Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes