Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Bundesliga · Germany

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Paderborn

3–1full timeHT 2–0 · 2H 1–1

TSG Hoffenheim

What Janus-12 said

56%

Under 4.5 yellow cards

79% success over 34 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 4 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 yellow cards

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 17:05.

Sealed on 20/09, 18:30announced on 06/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

77% success over 35 matches in this league
75%✓
68% success over 34 matches in this league
82%✗
55% success over 22 matches in this league
65%✗
45% success over 31 matches in this league
77%✗

Bundesliga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	FC Bayern München	4	3	1	0	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+5	7
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	FC Köln	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	-11	3
17	FC Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	-10	0

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 yellow cards56%held
- 1 yellow cards for 20 fouls given.
Paderborn or TSG Hoffenheim75%held
Over 2.5 yellow cards82%lost
Over 3.5 yellow cards65%lost
Draw or TSG Hoffenheim ahead at half-time77%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 29′ Paderborn, 42′ Paderborn.

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePaderborn 12th, TSG Hoffenheim 14th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Paderborn (1-0)
During the match42′ Paderborn go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 yellow cards” goes from 79.4% to 80% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Paderborn on the left, TSG Hoffenheim on the right.

First half

29'Goal · Santiago Castaneda
42'Goal · Stefano Marino (assist : Laurin Curda)
Yellow card · Wouter Burger45'
Substitution · Mats Rots ⇄ Albian Hajdari45'
45'Substitution · Marvin Pieringer ⇄ Steffen Tigges

Half-time2 – 0

Second half

Goal · Adam Daghim (assist : Max Moerstedt)50'
Substitution · Adam Hložek ⇄ Patrick Wimmer62'
Substitution · Max Moerstedt ⇄ Tim Lemperle62'
63'Substitution · Raphael Obermair ⇄ Jonah Sticker
69'Goal · Steffen Tigges (assist : Jonah Sticker)
73'Substitution · Gabriel Vidović ⇄ Tom Baack
73'Substitution · Stefano Marino ⇄ Rayan Philippe
75'Substitution · Mattes Hansen ⇄ Felix Götze
Substitution · Adam Daghim ⇄ Andrej Kramarić80'
Substitution · Leon Avdullahu ⇄ Fisnik Asllani80'

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 yellow cards56%held
- 1 yellow cards for 20 fouls given.
Paderborn or TSG Hoffenheim75%held
Over 2.5 yellow cards82%lost
Over 3.5 yellow cards65%lost
Draw or TSG Hoffenheim ahead at half-time77%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 29′ Paderborn, 42′ Paderborn.

What happened

Before kick-off

TablePaderborn 12th, TSG Hoffenheim 14th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match29′ opening goal, Paderborn (1-0)
During the match42′ Paderborn go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 yellow cards” goes from 79.4% to 80% success rate, over 35 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Bundesliga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes