Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Bundesliga · Germany

full time

Saturday, 19 September 2026

Borussia Mönchengladbach

3–4full timeHT 1–2 · 2H 2–2

FSV Mainz 05

What Janus-12 said

64%

Under 4.5 yellow cards

86% success over 28 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 36 %

A prediction at 64 % fails 36 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 1 bookmaker

Bet offered: Under 4.5 yellow cards

1xBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 00:35.

Sealed on 19/09, 14:30announced on 05/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

75% success over 28 matches in this league
72%✓
61% success over 28 matches in this league
78%✓
42% success over 24 matches in this league
72%✓
41% success over 17 matches in this league
55%✓

Bundesliga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	FC Bayern München	4	3	1	0	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+5	7
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	FC Köln	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	-11	3
17	FC Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	-10	0

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 yellow cards64%lost
- 11 yellow cards for 26 fouls given.
Borussia Mönchengladbach or FSV Mainz 0572%held
Over 2.5 yellow cards78%held
Draw or FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time72%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-2 at half-time, 11′ Borussia Mönchengladbach, 18′ FSV Mainz 05, 45′ FSV Mainz 05.
Over 3.5 yellow cards55%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBorussia Mönchengladbach 18th, FSV Mainz 05 6th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match11′ opening goal, Borussia Mönchengladbach (1-0)
During the match18′ equaliser, FSV Mainz 05 (1-1)
During the match45′ turnaround, FSV Mainz 05 go ahead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match59′ equaliser, Borussia Mönchengladbach (2-2)
During the match78′ turnaround, FSV Mainz 05 go ahead (2-3)
During the match89′ turnaround, FSV Mainz 05 go ahead (2-4)
During the match90′ last goal, Borussia Mönchengladbach

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 yellow cards” goes from 85.7% to 82.8% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Borussia Mönchengladbach on the left, FSV Mainz 05 on the right.

First half

11'Goal · Florian Neuhaus (assist : Lukas Ullrich)
Goal · Phillip Tietz (assist : Sheraldo Becker)18'
19'Yellow card · Lukas Ullrich
Goal · Sheraldo Becker (assist : Anthony Caci)45+1'

Half-time1 – 2

Second half

Yellow card · Stefan Posch55'
55'Yellow card · Philipp Sander
55'VAR: Penalty confirmed · Philipp Sander
57'Missed penalty · Kevin Diks
59'Goal · Isac Lidberg (assist : Lukas Ullrich)
62'Yellow card · Florian Neuhaus
64'Substitution · Florian Neuhaus ⇄ Wael Mohya
Substitution · Anthony Caci ⇄ Danny da Costa65'
Substitution · Lee Jae-Sung ⇄ Eric Martel65'
Yellow card · Phillipp Mwene73'
Substitution · Sheraldo Becker ⇄ Ransford Konigsdorffer76'
76'Substitution · Franck Honorat ⇄ Kevin Stöger
76'Substitution · Joe Scally ⇄ Daiki Hashioka
Goal · Eric Martel (assist : Kaishu Sano)78'
84'Substitution · Ko Itakura ⇄ Shuto Machino
84'Substitution · Hugo Bolin ⇄ Robin Hack
87'Yellow card · Wael Mohya
87'Yellow card · Kevin Stöger
Goal · Danny da Costa89'
Substitution · Nadiem Amiri ⇄ Lennard Maloney90+1'
Yellow card · Kacper Potulski90+3'
90+3'Yellow card · Shuto Machino
Yellow card · Alexander Schwolow90+4'
90+5'Penalty goal · Shuto Machino
Yellow card · Ransford Konigsdorffer90+7'

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 yellow cards64%lost
- 11 yellow cards for 26 fouls given.
Borussia Mönchengladbach or FSV Mainz 0572%held
Over 2.5 yellow cards78%held
Draw or FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time72%held
- It was all decided before the break: 1-2 at half-time, 11′ Borussia Mönchengladbach, 18′ FSV Mainz 05, 45′ FSV Mainz 05.
Over 3.5 yellow cards55%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableBorussia Mönchengladbach 18th, FSV Mainz 05 6th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match11′ opening goal, Borussia Mönchengladbach (1-0)
During the match18′ equaliser, FSV Mainz 05 (1-1)
During the match45′ turnaround, FSV Mainz 05 go ahead (1-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-2
During the match59′ equaliser, Borussia Mönchengladbach (2-2)
During the match78′ turnaround, FSV Mainz 05 go ahead (2-3)
During the match89′ turnaround, FSV Mainz 05 go ahead (2-4)
During the match90′ last goal, Borussia Mönchengladbach

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 yellow cards” goes from 85.7% to 82.8% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,281 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Bundesliga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes