Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Bundesliga · Germany

full time

Saturday, 29 August 2026

FSV Mainz 05

0-0full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 0–0

Paderborn

What Janus-12 said

60%

FSV Mainz 05 to win

100% success over 1 match in this league

✗ Fell into the 40 %

A forecast at 60 % fails 40 % of the time: it happened.

Where this market is covered· 7 bookmakers

Market covered: FSV Mainz 05 to win

1xBet
BetPawa
Betsson
Betwinner
MelBet
Paripesa
SportyBet

We show the implied probability, not the operator's price. Availability checked on 29/08, 17:07.

Sealed on 29/08, 14:30announced on 15/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other forecasts, most reliable first

100% success over 1 match in this league
83%✓
69% success over 1319 matches, all leagues
53%✓

Bundesliga

as of 08/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	FC Bayern München	4	3	1	0	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+5	7
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	FC Köln	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	-11	3
17	FC Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	-10	0

What we announced

2/3

Under each forecast, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

FSV Mainz 05 to win60%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: FSV Mainz 05 had 22 shots against 10, and no goal came.
FSV Mainz 05 or draw83%held
- No goal at either end: the draw was enough for the prediction.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 4 shots on target for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.
Draw or Paderborn ahead at half-time53%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFSV Mainz 05 6th, Paderborn 12th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0

What it changes

In this league, “FSV Mainz 05 to win” goes from 100% to 50% success rate, over 2 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,332 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 on the left, Paderborn on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Santiago Castaneda38'

Half-time0 - 0

Second half

Substitution · Stefano Marino ⇄ Steffen Tigges67'
68'Substitution · Sheraldo Becker ⇄ Otto Ruoppi
68'Substitution · Lee Jae-Sung ⇄ Ransford Konigsdorffer
Yellow card · Mattes Hansen72'
73'Substitution · Anthony Caci ⇄ Silvan Widmer
Substitution · Mattes Hansen ⇄ Jonah Sticker75'
Substitution · Laurin Ulrich ⇄ Tom Baack75'
80'Substitution · Dominik Kohr ⇄ Kacper Potulski
90+1'Yellow card · Phillipp Mwene
Substitution · Marvin Pieringer ⇄ Clemens Lippmann90+2'

What we announced

2/3

Under each forecast, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

FSV Mainz 05 to win60%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: FSV Mainz 05 had 22 shots against 10, and no goal came.
FSV Mainz 05 or draw83%held
- No goal at either end: the draw was enough for the prediction.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 4 shots on target for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.
Draw or Paderborn ahead at half-time53%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFSV Mainz 05 6th, Paderborn 12th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0

What it changes

In this league, “FSV Mainz 05 to win” goes from 100% to 50% success rate, over 2 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,332 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Bundesliga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes