Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Bundesliga · Germany

full time

Saturday, 29 August 2026

Elversberg

3-2full timeHT 2–0 · 2H 1–2

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

What Janus-12 said

56%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win

100% success over 1 match in this league

✗ Fell into the 44 %

A prediction at 56 % fails 44 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 29/08, 11:36.

Sealed on 29/08, 14:30announced on 15/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

100% success over 1 match in this league
79%✗
69% success over 1319 matches, all leagues
83%✗

Bundesliga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	FC Bayern München	4	3	1	0	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+5	7
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	FC Köln	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	-11	3
17	FC Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	-10	0

What we announced

0/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win56%lost
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen chased the score almost all match: Elversberg scored as early as the 8th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Bayer 04 Leverkusen had 21 shots against 11, for 2 goals against 3.
Draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen79%lost
Draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead at half-time83%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 8′ Elversberg, 9′ Elversberg.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableElversberg 7th, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match8′ opening goal, Elversberg (1-0)
During the match9′ Elversberg go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match90′ last goal, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Christian Kofane (Bayer 04 Leverkusen)

What it changes

In this league, “Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win” goes from 100% to 50% success rate, over 2 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,332 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Elversberg on the left, Bayer 04 Leverkusen on the right.

First half

8'Goal · Lukas Petkov (assist : Francis Onyeka)
9'Goal · Cole Campbell
29'Yellow card · Maximilian Rohr
41'Yellow card · Cole Campbell

Half-time2 - 0

Second half

46'Goal · David Mokwa (assist : Lukas Petkov)
Yellow card · Ibrahim Maza53'
Substitution · Loic Bade ⇄ Jarell Quansah55'
Substitution · Ignacio Ezequiel Agustín Fernández Carballo ⇄ Facundo Medina55'
Substitution · Lucas Vázquez ⇄ Christian Kofane55'
65'Substitution · Francis Onyeka ⇄ Noah Darvich
65'Substitution · Cole Campbell ⇄ Maurice Krattenmacher
Substitution · Malik Tillman ⇄ Jonas Hofmann65'
75'Substitution · David Mokwa ⇄ Luca Schnellbacher
75'Substitution · Jan Gyamerah ⇄ Luca Sirch
Goal · Patrik Schick (assist : Ibrahim Maza)77'
Yellow card · Facundo Medina78'
82'Substitution · Maximilian Rohr ⇄ Florian Le Joncour
Substitution · Afonso Moreira ⇄ Victor Okoh Boniface85'
89'Yellow card · Nicolas Kristof
Goal · Christian Kofane90+1'

What we announced

0/3

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win56%lost
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen chased the score almost all match: Elversberg scored as early as the 8th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Bayer 04 Leverkusen had 21 shots against 11, for 2 goals against 3.
Draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen79%lost
Draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead at half-time83%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 2-0 at half-time, 8′ Elversberg, 9′ Elversberg.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableElversberg 7th, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match8′ opening goal, Elversberg (1-0)
During the match9′ Elversberg go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-0
During the match90′ last goal, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Christian Kofane (Bayer 04 Leverkusen)

What it changes

In this league, “Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win” goes from 100% to 50% success rate, over 2 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,332 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Bundesliga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes