Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Primera División Femenina · Spain

full time

Sunday, 30 August 2026

Real Madrid W

3–2full timeHT 3–2 · 2H 0–0

Atletico Madrid W

What Janus-12 said

77%

Under 4.5 goals

100% success over 5 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 23 %

A prediction at 77 % fails 23 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 5 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

1xBet
BetPawa
Betsson
PMUC
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 30/08, 15:40.

Sealed on 30/08, 16:00announced on 16/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

80% success over 5 matches in this league
88%✓
60% success over 5 matches in this league
62%✗
60% success over 5 matches in this league
81%✓
60% success over 5 matches in this league
69%✗
50% success over 2 matches in this league
56%✓
40% success over 5 matches in this league
68%✓
0% success over 1 match in this league
64%✓

Primera Division Women

as of 04/09, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	Barcelona W	30	28	0	2	+112	84
2	Real Madrid W	30	24	4	2	+59	76
3	Atletico Madrid W	30	16	10	4	+26	58
4	Athletic Club W	30	16	3	11	+8	51
5	Granada	30	14	3	13	-3	45
6	Granad. Tenerife W	30	11	9	10	+4	42
7	Real Sociedad W	30	12	5	13	-5	41
8	Eibar W	30	10	8	12	-17	38
9	Sevilla W	30	10	6	14	-15	36
10	Madrid CFF W	30	9	6	15	-25	33
11	Espanyol W	30	7	11	12	-21	32
12	Levante W	30	8	7	15	-15	31
13	FC Levante Badalona W	30	6	10	14	-21	28
14	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	6	9	15	-21	27
15	Real Betis W	30	6	5	19	-43	23
16	Valencia W	30	5	8	17	-23	23

What we announced

5/8

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals77%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 8th minute, 5 in total.
Real Madrid W or draw88%held
- Real Madrid W held on with ten men for 35 minutes (sent off in the 55th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Atletico Madrid W played 22 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 68th minute.
At most 1 goal before half-time62%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 3-2 at half-time, 8′ Real Madrid W, 15′ Real Madrid W, 35′ Atletico Madrid W, 44′ Real Madrid W, 45′ Atletico Madrid W.
Over 1.5 goals81%held
Under 3.5 goals69%lost
Over 2.5 goals56%held
Real Madrid W to win68%held
Real Madrid W ahead at half-time64%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Madrid W 2nd, Atletico Madrid W 3rd (Primera Division Women)

During the match

During the match8′ opening goal, Real Madrid W (1-0)
During the match15′ Real Madrid W go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-2
During the match55′ sending-off, Real Madrid W (F. Schroder)
During the match68′ sending-off, Atletico Madrid W (Gio Garbelini)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 100% to 83.3% success rate, over 6 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Real Madrid W on the left, Atletico Madrid W on the right.

First half

8'Goal · F. Schroder (assist : L. Keukelaar)
15'Goal · S. Toletti
Yellow card · X. Perez23'
Goal · S. Jensen (assist : F. Iannuzzi)35'
43'Yellow card · F. Schroder
44'Goal · F. Schroder
Goal · S. Jensen (assist : M. Zubieta)45+6'

Half-time3 – 2

Second half

55'Red card · F. Schroder
61'Substitution · L. Keukelaar ⇄ L. Beerensteyn
Red card · Gio Garbelini68'
Substitution · R. Otermin ⇄ A. Poljak75'
Substitution · M. Zubieta ⇄ H. Csiszar75'
78'Substitution · S. Toletti ⇄ L. Caicedo
Substitution · S. Jensen ⇄ A. Sarriegi80'
Substitution · K. Kuhl ⇄ C. Gomez87'
90+4'Substitution · A. Jacinto ⇄ M. Lakrar

What we announced

5/8

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals77%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 8th minute, 5 in total.
Real Madrid W or draw88%held
- Real Madrid W held on with ten men for 35 minutes (sent off in the 55th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- Atletico Madrid W played 22 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 68th minute.
At most 1 goal before half-time62%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 3-2 at half-time, 8′ Real Madrid W, 15′ Real Madrid W, 35′ Atletico Madrid W, 44′ Real Madrid W, 45′ Atletico Madrid W.
Over 1.5 goals81%held
Under 3.5 goals69%lost
Over 2.5 goals56%held
Real Madrid W to win68%held
Real Madrid W ahead at half-time64%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Madrid W 2nd, Atletico Madrid W 3rd (Primera Division Women)

During the match

During the match8′ opening goal, Real Madrid W (1-0)
During the match15′ Real Madrid W go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-2
During the match55′ sending-off, Real Madrid W (F. Schroder)
During the match68′ sending-off, Atletico Madrid W (Gio Garbelini)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 100% to 83.3% success rate, over 6 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Primera Division Women

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes