Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Friday, 18 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Friday 18 September at 20:00. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Espanyol

1–3full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 1–1

Elche

What Janus-12 said

77%

Espanyol or draw

76% success over 58 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 23 %

A prediction at 77 % fails 23 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Espanyol or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 18/09, 15:31.

Sealed on 18/09, 20:00announced on 05/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

75% success over 53 matches in this league
63%✓
64% success over 58 matches in this league
74%✗
62% success over 29 matches in this league
51%✗
53% success over 58 matches in this league
67%✗
47% success over 59 matches in this league
51%✗

La Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

1/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Espanyol or draw77%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Espanyol had 23 shots against 9, for 1 goal against 3.
- Espanyol chased the score almost all match: Elche scored as early as the 26th minute.
Draw or Elche ahead at half-time63%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 26′ Elche, 29′ Elche.
Under 3.5 goals74%lost
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 2.5 goals51%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time67%lost
Espanyol to win51%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEspanyol 15th, Elche 18th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match6′ sending-off, Elche (Federico Redondo Solari)
During the match26′ opening goal, Elche (0-1)
During the match29′ Elche go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2
During the match78′ last goal, Elche

What it changes

In this league, “Espanyol or draw” goes from 75.9% to 74.6% success rate, over 59 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,166 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Espanyol on the left, Elche on the right.

First half

VAR: Card upgrade confirmed · Federico Redondo Solari4'
Red card · Federico Redondo Solari6'
Yellow card · Fernando Niño Rodríguez22'
Goal · Fernando Niño Rodríguez (assist : Roy Revivo)26'
Goal · Fernando Niño Rodríguez (assist : Roy Revivo)29'
Substitution · Buba Sangaré ⇄ Ruben Sanchez Saez37'
45'Substitution · Roger Hinojo ⇄ Quilindschy Hartman
45'Substitution · Urko Gonzalez ⇄ Marcos Fernández
45+4'Yellow card · Eduardo Expósito Jaén

Half-time0 – 2

Second half

Substitution · Gonzalo Villar ⇄ Pedro Bigas60'
Substitution · Fernando Niño Rodríguez ⇄ Abiel Alessio Osorio61'
61'Substitution · Álex Calatrava Torrado ⇄ Pere Milla
67'Substitution · Bryan Zaragoza ⇄ Tyrhys Dolan
67'Substitution · Unai Núñez ⇄ Clemens Riedel
72'Own goal · Víctor Chust
Substitution · Thomas Lemar ⇄ Tete Morente77'
Substitution · Roy Revivo ⇄ Matia Barzic77'
Goal · Germán Valera (assist : Tete Morente)78'
82'Yellow card · Clemens Riedel
Yellow card · Lucas Cepeda90+1'

What we announced

1/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Espanyol or draw77%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Espanyol had 23 shots against 9, for 1 goal against 3.
- Espanyol chased the score almost all match: Elche scored as early as the 26th minute.
Draw or Elche ahead at half-time63%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 26′ Elche, 29′ Elche.
Under 3.5 goals74%lost
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 2.5 goals51%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time67%lost
Espanyol to win51%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEspanyol 15th, Elche 18th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match6′ sending-off, Elche (Federico Redondo Solari)
During the match26′ opening goal, Elche (0-1)
During the match29′ Elche go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2
During the match78′ last goal, Elche

What it changes

In this league, “Espanyol or draw” goes from 75.9% to 74.6% success rate, over 59 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,166 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes