Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Sunday 20 September at 15:15. Originally planned for Sunday 20 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Atlético de Madrid

2–1full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 2–1

Real Madrid

What Janus-12 said

83%

Under 6.5 yellow cards

96% success over 53 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 4 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 6.5 yellow cards

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 20/09, 17:04.

Sealed on 20/09, 15:15announced on 06/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

81% success over 53 matches in this league
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75% success over 63 matches in this league
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60% success over 50 matches in this league
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52% success over 63 matches in this league
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La Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

9/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 6.5 yellow cards83%held
- 4 yellow cards for 25 fouls given, and a sending-off in the 52nd minute.
Under 5.5 yellow cards68%held
Over 2.5 yellow cards82%held
Draw or Real Madrid72%lost
- Real Madrid finished with ten men: sent off in the 52nd minute, 38 minutes a man down.
Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time73%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Over 2.5 goals54%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals67%held
- The match closed up after the sending-off in the 52nd minute, on the Real Madrid side.
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
Over 3.5 yellow cards68%held
Under 4.5 yellow cards57%held
At most 1 goal before half-time61%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAtlético de Madrid 2nd, Real Madrid 4th (La Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match52′ sending-off, Real Madrid (Dean Huijsen)
During the match53′ opening goal, Atlético de Madrid (1-0)
During the match59′ Atlético de Madrid go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match89′ last goal, Real Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Under 6.5 yellow cards” goes from 96.2% to 96.3% success rate, over 54 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Atlético de Madrid on the left, Real Madrid on the right.

First half

6'Yellow card · Diego Pablo Simeone
35'Yellow card · Marc Pubill
38'VAR: Card upgrade confirmed · Cristian Romero
38'Yellow card · Cristian Romero
45'Substitution · Marc Pubill ⇄ Koke

Half-time0 – 0

Second half

Yellow card · Denzel Dumfries49'
VAR: Card upgrade confirmed · Dean Huijsen51'
Red card · Dean Huijsen52'
53'Penalty goal · Alejandro Grimaldo
Substitution · Arda Güler ⇄ Antonio Rüdiger54'
Substitution · Vinícius ⇄ Yan Diomande54'
59'Goal · Jonathan David (assist : Giuliano Simeone Baldini)
62'Substitution · Jonathan David ⇄ Julián Álvarez
67'Substitution · Alejandro Baena Rodríguez ⇄ Ademola Lookman
Substitution · Aurelien Tchouameni ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga71'
Yellow card · Jude Bellingham78'
Substitution · Jude Bellingham ⇄ Bernardo Silva82'
89'Substitution · Cristian Romero ⇄ Robin Le Normand
89'Substitution · Lee Kang-In ⇄ Morten Hjulmand
Goal · Antonio Rüdiger (assist : Bernardo Silva)89'

What we announced

9/10

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 6.5 yellow cards83%held
- 4 yellow cards for 25 fouls given, and a sending-off in the 52nd minute.
Under 5.5 yellow cards68%held
Over 2.5 yellow cards82%held
Draw or Real Madrid72%lost
- Real Madrid finished with ten men: sent off in the 52nd minute, 38 minutes a man down.
Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time73%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Over 2.5 goals54%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals67%held
- The match closed up after the sending-off in the 52nd minute, on the Real Madrid side.
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
Over 3.5 yellow cards68%held
Under 4.5 yellow cards57%held
At most 1 goal before half-time61%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAtlético de Madrid 2nd, Real Madrid 4th (La Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match52′ sending-off, Real Madrid (Dean Huijsen)
During the match53′ opening goal, Atlético de Madrid (1-0)
During the match59′ Atlético de Madrid go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match89′ last goal, Real Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Under 6.5 yellow cards” goes from 96.2% to 96.3% success rate, over 54 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,748 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes