Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Tuesday, 15 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Tuesday 15 September at 20:30. Originally planned for Wednesday 16 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Elche

2–3full timeHT 0–2 · 2H 2–1

Real Madrid

What Janus-12 said

81%

Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time

77% success over 47 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 15/09, 21:31.

Sealed on 15/09, 20:30announced on 02/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

75% success over 51 matches in this league
85%✓
73% success over 26 matches in this league
66%✓
65% success over 52 matches in this league
61%✗
52% success over 52 matches in this league
61%✗
44% success over 52 matches in this league
65%✓

La Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time81%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 25′ Real Madrid, 33′ Real Madrid.
Draw or Real Madrid85%held
- Real Madrid took the lead in the 90th minute and never let it go.
- Real Madrid took control early: opening goal in the 25th minute.
Over 2.5 goals66%held
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals61%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time61%lost
Real Madrid to win65%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableElche 18th, Real Madrid 4th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match25′ opening goal, Real Madrid (0-1)
During the match33′ Real Madrid go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2
During the match83′ Elche come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match90′ Real Madrid retake the lead (2-3)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Carlos Espí (Real Madrid)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time” goes from 76.6% to 77.1% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,765 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Elche on the left, Real Madrid on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Yan Diomande4'
Own goal · Matías Dituro25'
31'Yellow card · Marc Aguado
Goal · Kylian Mbappé (assist : Yan Diomande)33'

Half-time0 – 2

Second half

58'Substitution · Marc Aguado ⇄ Lucas Cepeda
58'Substitution · Germán Valera ⇄ Thomas Lemar
Substitution · Vinícius ⇄ Brahim Díaz68'
Substitution · Arda Güler ⇄ Jude Bellingham68'
68'Substitution · Buba Sangaré ⇄ Ruben Sanchez Saez
68'Substitution · Martim Neto ⇄ Fernando Niño Rodríguez
71'Goal · Abiel Alessio Osorio (assist : Lucas Cepeda)
Yellow card · Ibrahima Konaté73'
78'Yellow card · Lucas Cepeda
80'Substitution · Tete Morente ⇄ José Antonio Ferrández Pomares
83'Goal · Fernando Niño Rodríguez (assist : José Antonio Ferrández Pomares)
Substitution · Aurelien Tchouameni ⇄ Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa86'
Substitution · Trent Alexander-Arnold ⇄ Carlos Espí87'
Goal · Carlos Espí (assist : Kylian Mbappé)90+1'
Substitution · Yan Diomande ⇄ Denzel Dumfries90+2'
90+3'Yellow card · José Antonio Ferrández Pomares
90+4'Yellow card · Gonzalo Villar

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time81%held
- It was all decided before the break: 0-2 at half-time, 25′ Real Madrid, 33′ Real Madrid.
Draw or Real Madrid85%held
- Real Madrid took the lead in the 90th minute and never let it go.
- Real Madrid took control early: opening goal in the 25th minute.
Over 2.5 goals66%held
- The two teams had 7 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals61%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time61%lost
Real Madrid to win65%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableElche 18th, Real Madrid 4th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match25′ opening goal, Real Madrid (0-1)
During the match33′ Real Madrid go 2 goals up (0-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-2
During the match83′ Elche come back from 2 goals down (2-2)
During the match90′ Real Madrid retake the lead (2-3)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Carlos Espí (Real Madrid)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time” goes from 76.6% to 77.1% success rate, over 48 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,765 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes