Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Wednesday 16 September at 18:00. Originally planned for Wednesday 16 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Atlético de Madrid

4–0full timeHT 1–0 · 2H 3–0

Osasuna

What Janus-12 said

53%

Draw or Osasuna ahead at half-time

78% success over 49 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 47 %

A prediction at 53 % fails 47 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 7 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Osasuna ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 16/09, 19:30.

Sealed on 16/09, 18:01announced on 02/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

74% success over 53 matches in this league
87%✓
71% success over 28 matches in this league
50%✓
65% success over 54 matches in this league
72%✗
52% success over 54 matches in this league
63%✓
44% success over 54 matches in this league
67%✓

La Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Osasuna ahead at half-time53%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 24′ Atlético de Madrid.
Atlético de Madrid or draw87%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 11 shots on target for Atlético de Madrid against 1.
- Atlético de Madrid took the lead in the 24th minute and never let it go.
Over 2.5 goals50%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals72%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time63%held
Atlético de Madrid to win67%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAtlético de Madrid 2nd, Osasuna 13th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match24′ opening goal, Atlético de Madrid (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match54′ Atlético de Madrid go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match82′ last goal, Atlético de Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Osasuna ahead at half-time” goes from 77.6% to 76% success rate, over 50 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,827 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Atlético de Madrid on the left, Osasuna on the right.

First half

24'Goal · Jonathan David

Half-time1 – 0

Second half

50'Yellow card · Ademola Lookman
54'Goal · Lee Kang-In (assist : Jonathan David)
Substitution · Jonathan Dubasin ⇄ Enrique Barja Alfonso59'
Substitution · Raul Moro ⇄ Rubén García59'
Substitution · Raul García ⇄ Ante Budimir60'
63'Goal · Robin Le Normand
68'Substitution · Cristian Romero ⇄ Marc Pubill
68'Substitution · Jonathan David ⇄ Giuliano Simeone Baldini
68'Substitution · Ademola Lookman ⇄ Arnau Ortiz
Substitution · Íñigo Arguibide ⇄ Jon Moncayola71'
Substitution · Asier Osambela ⇄ Romain Del Castillo74'
82'Goal · Alejandro Baena Rodríguez (assist : Johnny Cardoso)
85'Substitution · Johnny Cardoso ⇄ Morten Hjulmand
85'Substitution · Alejandro Grimaldo ⇄ Dávid Hancko
Yellow card · Rubén García86'
Yellow card · Abel Bretones90+3'

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Osasuna ahead at half-time53%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-0 at half-time, 24′ Atlético de Madrid.
Atlético de Madrid or draw87%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 11 shots on target for Atlético de Madrid against 1.
- Atlético de Madrid took the lead in the 24th minute and never let it go.
Over 2.5 goals50%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals72%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time63%held
Atlético de Madrid to win67%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAtlético de Madrid 2nd, Osasuna 13th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match24′ opening goal, Atlético de Madrid (1-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-0
During the match54′ Atlético de Madrid go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match82′ last goal, Atlético de Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Osasuna ahead at half-time” goes from 77.6% to 76% success rate, over 50 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,827 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes