Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Saturday, 12 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 12 September at 20:00. Originally planned for Sunday 13 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Real Madrid

4–1full timeHT 3–0 · 2H 1–1

Rayo Vallecano

What Janus-12 said

51%

Real Madrid ahead at half-time

75% success over 4 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Real Madrid ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 12/09, 22:06.

Sealed on 12/09, 20:00announced on 30/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

70% success over 44 matches in this league
91%✓
70% success over 23 matches in this league
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64% success over 45 matches in this league
63%✗
53% success over 45 matches in this league
57%✗
42% success over 45 matches in this league
72%✓

La Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Real Madrid ahead at half-time51%held
- It was all decided before the break: 3-0 at half-time, 14′ Real Madrid, 17′ Real Madrid, 35′ Real Madrid.
Real Madrid or draw91%held
- Real Madrid took the lead in the 14th minute and never let it go.
- Real Madrid took control early: opening goal in the 14th minute.
Over 2.5 goals61%held
- The two teams had 18 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 14th minute, 5 in total.
Under 3.5 goals63%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time57%lost
Real Madrid to win72%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Madrid 4th, Rayo Vallecano 12th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match14′ opening goal, Real Madrid (1-0)
During the match17′ Real Madrid go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-0
During the match90′ last goal, Real Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Real Madrid ahead at half-time” goes from 75% to 80% success rate, over 5 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,949 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Real Madrid on the left, Rayo Vallecano on the right.

First half

14'Penalty goal · Kylian Mbappé
17'Goal · Álvaro Fernández Carreras (assist : Kylian Mbappé)
35'Goal · Jude Bellingham (assist : Vinícius)
45'Substitution · Federico Valverde ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga

Half-time3 – 0

Second half

Goal · Sergio Camello51'
Substitution · Pedro Díaz ⇄ Rayane Belaid67'
Substitution · Gnangoro Bouare ⇄ Óscar Valentín67'
69'Substitution · Bernardo Silva ⇄ Aurelien Tchouameni
72'Substitution · Yan Diomande ⇄ Arda Güler
Substitution · Sergio Camello ⇄ Alexandre Zurawski75'
Substitution · Unai López ⇄ Mujaid Sadick75'
Yellow card · Pathé Ciss76'
Substitution · Adrià Pedrosa ⇄ Ivan Balliu86'
89'Substitution · Vinícius ⇄ Marc Cucurella
90+1'Goal · Kylian Mbappé (assist : Arda Güler)

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Real Madrid ahead at half-time51%held
- It was all decided before the break: 3-0 at half-time, 14′ Real Madrid, 17′ Real Madrid, 35′ Real Madrid.
Real Madrid or draw91%held
- Real Madrid took the lead in the 14th minute and never let it go.
- Real Madrid took control early: opening goal in the 14th minute.
Over 2.5 goals61%held
- The two teams had 18 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 14th minute, 5 in total.
Under 3.5 goals63%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time57%lost
Real Madrid to win72%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Madrid 4th, Rayo Vallecano 12th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match14′ opening goal, Real Madrid (1-0)
During the match17′ Real Madrid go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the matchHalf-time: 3-0
During the match90′ last goal, Real Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Real Madrid ahead at half-time” goes from 75% to 80% success rate, over 5 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 596,949 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes