Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Saturday, 5 September 2026

Rayo Vallecano

3-2full timeHT 2–2 · 2H 1–0

Santander

What Janus-12 said

57%

Draw or Santander ahead at half-time

76% success over 29 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Draw or Santander ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 05/09, 17:30announced on 22/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

76% success over 33 matches in this league
78%✓
67% success over 33 matches in this league
68%✗
63% success over 19 matches in this league
54%✓
58% success over 33 matches in this league
61%✗
45% success over 33 matches in this league
52%✓

La Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Santander ahead at half-time57%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-2 at half-time, 4′ Santander, 17′ Rayo Vallecano, 28′ Santander, 43′ Rayo Vallecano.
Rayo Vallecano or draw78%held
- Rayo Vallecano held on with ten men for 5 minutes (sent off in the 85th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 10 shots on target for Rayo Vallecano against 4.
Under 3.5 goals68%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 4th minute, 5 in total.
- The two teams had 14 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals54%held
At most 1 goal before half-time61%lost
Rayo Vallecano to win52%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableRayo Vallecano 12th, Santander 16th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match4′ opening goal, Santander (0-1)
During the match17′ equaliser, Rayo Vallecano (1-1)
During the match28′ Santander retake the lead (1-2)
During the match43′ equaliser, Rayo Vallecano (2-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-2
During the match47′ turnaround, Rayo Vallecano go ahead (3-2)
During the match85′ sending-off, Rayo Vallecano (Francisco Pérez Martínez)
During the match89′ sending-off, Rayo Vallecano (Jorge De Frutos)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Santander ahead at half-time” goes from 75.9% to 76.7% success rate, over 30 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Rayo Vallecano on the left, Santander on the right.

First half

2'Yellow card · Óscar Valentín
Goal · Sergio Canales4'
17'Goal · Andrei Rațiu (assist : Sergio Camello)
Yellow card · Yassir Zabiri25'
Goal · Pablo García28'
Yellow card · Iñigo Vicente35'
39'Yellow card · Sergio Camello
43'Goal · Sergio Camello (assist : Unai López)

Half-time2 - 2

Second half

47'Goal · Sergio Camello (assist : Unai López)
Substitution · Manu Hernando ⇄ Pablo Ramon Parra55'
Substitution · Matteo Prati ⇄ André Almeida55'
Substitution · Facundo González ⇄ Jeanuël Belocian55'
57'Substitution · Sergio Camello ⇄ Alexandre Zurawski
57'Substitution · Óscar Valentín ⇄ Gnangoro Bouare
65'Substitution · Jorge De Frutos ⇄ Francisco Pérez Martínez
66'Yellow card · Florian Lejeune
74'Substitution · Álvaro García ⇄ Georgiy Tsitaishvili
75'Substitution · Adrià Pedrosa ⇄ Ivan Balliu
85'Red card · Francisco Pérez Martínez
89'Red card · Jorge De Frutos
Substitution · Pablo García ⇄ Juan Carlos Arana90'
Substitution · Alvaro Mantilla ⇄ Aarón Martin Caricol90'

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Santander ahead at half-time57%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-2 at half-time, 4′ Santander, 17′ Rayo Vallecano, 28′ Santander, 43′ Rayo Vallecano.
Rayo Vallecano or draw78%held
- Rayo Vallecano held on with ten men for 5 minutes (sent off in the 85th minute), and the prediction held with them.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 10 shots on target for Rayo Vallecano against 4.
Under 3.5 goals68%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 4th minute, 5 in total.
- The two teams had 14 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Over 2.5 goals54%held
At most 1 goal before half-time61%lost
Rayo Vallecano to win52%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableRayo Vallecano 12th, Santander 16th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match4′ opening goal, Santander (0-1)
During the match17′ equaliser, Rayo Vallecano (1-1)
During the match28′ Santander retake the lead (1-2)
During the match43′ equaliser, Rayo Vallecano (2-2)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-2
During the match47′ turnaround, Rayo Vallecano go ahead (3-2)
During the match85′ sending-off, Rayo Vallecano (Francisco Pérez Martínez)
During the match89′ sending-off, Rayo Vallecano (Jorge De Frutos)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Santander ahead at half-time” goes from 75.9% to 76.7% success rate, over 30 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes