Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Friday, 4 September 2026

Real Betis

1-0full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 1–0

Real Madrid

What Janus-12 said

80%

Draw or Real Madrid

81% success over 31 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 20 %

A prediction at 80 % fails 20 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Draw or Real Madrid

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/09, 21:31.

Sealed on 04/09, 20:00announced on 22/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

74% success over 27 matches in this league
80%✓
67% success over 18 matches in this league
54%✗
65% success over 31 matches in this league
73%✓
55% success over 31 matches in this league
65%✓
48% success over 31 matches in this league
54%✗

La Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Real Madrid80%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Real Madrid had 20 shots against 10, for 0 goal against 1.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Real Betis scored in the 81st minute.
Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time80%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Over 2.5 goals54%lost
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 13 shots on target in total, for 1 goal.
Under 3.5 goals73%held
At most 1 goal before half-time65%held
Real Madrid to win54%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Betis 3rd, Real Madrid 4th (La Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match81′ opening goal, Real Betis (1-0)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Real Madrid” goes from 80.6% to 78.1% success rate, over 32 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,869 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Real Betis on the left, Real Madrid on the right.

First half

39'Substitution · Diego Llorente ⇄ Marc Bartra
Yellow card · Arda Güler45+3'

Half-time0 - 0

Second half

Yellow card · Ibrahima Konaté54'
Yellow card · José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix54'
60'Substitution · Isco ⇄ Álvaro Fidalgo
Yellow card · Eduardo Camavinga61'
64'Yellow card · Facundo Bernal
Substitution · Eduardo Camavinga ⇄ Bernardo Silva64'
Substitution · Denzel Dumfries ⇄ Trent Alexander-Arnold64'
Substitution · Arda Güler ⇄ Yan Diomande64'
68'Substitution · Facundo Bernal ⇄ Nelson Deossa
68'Substitution · Cucho Hernández ⇄ Troy Parrott
77'Substitution · Antony Matheus dos Santos ⇄ Rodrigo Riquelme
81'Goal · Troy Parrott
Substitution · Federico Valverde ⇄ Carlos Espí82'
83'Yellow card · Marc Roca
Substitution · Marc Cucurella ⇄ Álvaro Fernández Carreras88'
VAR: Goal cancelled · Carlos Espí89'
90+3'Yellow card · Natan Bernardo de Souza
Missed penalty · Kylian Mbappé90+4'
Yellow card · Vinícius90+9'

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Real Madrid80%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Real Madrid had 20 shots against 10, for 0 goal against 1.
- It all came down to the final minutes: Real Betis scored in the 81st minute.
Draw or Real Madrid ahead at half-time80%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Over 2.5 goals54%lost
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 13 shots on target in total, for 1 goal.
Under 3.5 goals73%held
At most 1 goal before half-time65%held
Real Madrid to win54%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Betis 3rd, Real Madrid 4th (La Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match81′ opening goal, Real Betis (1-0)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Real Madrid” goes from 80.6% to 78.1% success rate, over 32 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,869 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes