Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Saturday, 5 September 2026

Athletic Club

3-0full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 3–0

Atlético de Madrid

What Janus-12 said

73%

Draw or Atlético de Madrid

78% success over 32 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 27 %

A prediction at 73 % fails 27 % of the time: it happened.

Where to find this bet· 5 bookmakers

Bet offered: Draw or Atlético de Madrid

1xBet
BetPawa
Betsson
PMUC
SportyBet

We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 05/09, 03:40.

Sealed on 05/09, 15:15announced on 22/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

75% success over 28 matches in this league
78%✓
66% success over 32 matches in this league
78%✓
62% success over 13 matches in this league
54%✗
56% success over 32 matches in this league
69%✓

La Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Atlético de Madrid73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Athletic Club scored in the 90th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Atlético de Madrid had 15 shots against 11, for 0 goal against 3.
Draw or Atlético de Madrid ahead at half-time78%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Under 3.5 goals78%held
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 9 shots on target in total, for 3 goals.
Under 2.5 goals54%lost
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
At most 1 goal before half-time69%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAthletic Club 10th, Atlético de Madrid 2nd (La Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match46′ opening goal, Athletic Club (1-0)
During the match48′ Athletic Club go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match90′ last goal, Athletic Club

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Atlético de Madrid” goes from 78.1% to 75.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Athletic Club on the left, Atlético de Madrid on the right.

First half

Yellow card · Lee Kang-In39'
45'Substitution · Yeray Álvarez ⇄ Aitor Paredes

Half-time0 - 0

Second half

46'Goal · Nico Williams
48'Goal · Robert Navarro Muñoz (assist : Iñaki Williams)
Substitution · Ademola Lookman ⇄ Arnau Ortiz58'
Substitution · Morten Hjulmand ⇄ Koke59'
Substitution · Giuliano Simeone Baldini ⇄ Cristian Romero59'
Substitution · Lee Kang-In ⇄ Julián Álvarez59'
60'Substitution · Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta ⇄ Mikel Jauregizar
66'Substitution · Robert Navarro Muñoz ⇄ Johaneko Louis-Jean
66'Substitution · Iñaki Williams ⇄ Alex Berenguer
Substitution · Alejandro Baena Rodríguez ⇄ Johnny Cardoso76'
76'Substitution · Nico Williams ⇄ Gorka Guruzeta
90'Goal · Oihan Sancet

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Atlético de Madrid73%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: Athletic Club scored in the 90th minute.
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: Atlético de Madrid had 15 shots against 11, for 0 goal against 3.
Draw or Atlético de Madrid ahead at half-time78%held
- The first half gave nothing: 0-0 at the break.
Under 3.5 goals78%held
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
- The two teams managed only 9 shots on target in total, for 3 goals.
Under 2.5 goals54%lost
- The two teams had 9 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
At most 1 goal before half-time69%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAthletic Club 10th, Atlético de Madrid 2nd (La Liga)

During the match

During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match46′ opening goal, Athletic Club (1-0)
During the match48′ Athletic Club go 2 goals up (2-0)
During the match90′ last goal, Athletic Club

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Atlético de Madrid” goes from 78.1% to 75.8% success rate, over 33 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,977 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes