Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Monday, 31 August 2026

FC Barcelona

5-2full timeHT 2–1 · 2H 3–1

Rayo Vallecano

What Janus-12 said

91%

FC Barcelona or draw

79% success over 28 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: FC Barcelona or draw

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 31/08, 15:40.

Sealed on 31/08, 20:30announced on 18/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

67% success over 3 matches in this league
53%✓
65% success over 17 matches in this league
63%✓
64% success over 28 matches in this league
67%✗
54% success over 28 matches in this league
60%✗
46% success over 28 matches in this league
73%✓

La Liga

as of 07/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

FC Barcelona or draw91%held
- FC Barcelona took control early: opening goal in the 19th minute.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 9 shots on target for FC Barcelona against 5.
FC Barcelona ahead at half-time53%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 12′ Rayo Vallecano, 19′ FC Barcelona, 21′ FC Barcelona.
Over 2.5 goals63%held
- The chances said so: 3.91 expected goals in total.
- The two teams had 14 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals67%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time60%lost
FC Barcelona to win73%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFC Barcelona 1st, Rayo Vallecano 12th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match12′ opening goal, Rayo Vallecano (0-1)
During the match19′ equaliser, FC Barcelona (1-1)
During the match21′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match51′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (3-1)
During the match71′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (4-2)
During the match90′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (5-2)

What it changes

In this league, “FC Barcelona or draw” goes from 78.6% to 79.3% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,066 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

FC Barcelona on the left, Rayo Vallecano on the right.

First half

Goal · S. Camello (assist : A. Garcia)12'
19'Goal · Raphinha (assist : X. Espart)
21'Goal · Lamine Yamal (assist : M. Bernal)
Substitution · J. Vertrouwd ⇄ A. Pedrosa32'
45+1'VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside · J. Kounde

Half-time2 - 1

Second half

51'Own goal · F. Lejeune
Substitution · G. Bouare ⇄ P. Diaz57'
Substitution · J. de Frutos ⇄ F. Perez58'
Goal · S. Camello (assist : U. Lopez)59'
64'Substitution · D. Olmo ⇄ Fermin
64'Substitution · M. Bernal ⇄ Rodri
71'Goal · Raphinha (assist : A. Gordon)
Substitution · S. Camello ⇄ Alemao75'
Substitution · U. Lopez ⇄ R. Nteka75'
78'Substitution · Pedri ⇄ J. Cancelo
78'Substitution · A. Gordon ⇄ K. Adeyemi
86'Substitution · Raphinha ⇄ H. Abdelkarim
Yellow card · A. Pedrosa90'
90'Goal · Lamine Yamal (assist : K. Adeyemi)

What we announced

4/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

FC Barcelona or draw91%held
- FC Barcelona took control early: opening goal in the 19th minute.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 9 shots on target for FC Barcelona against 5.
FC Barcelona ahead at half-time53%held
- It was all decided before the break: 2-1 at half-time, 12′ Rayo Vallecano, 19′ FC Barcelona, 21′ FC Barcelona.
Over 2.5 goals63%held
- The chances said so: 3.91 expected goals in total.
- The two teams had 14 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals67%lost
At most 1 goal before half-time60%lost
FC Barcelona to win73%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableFC Barcelona 1st, Rayo Vallecano 12th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match12′ opening goal, Rayo Vallecano (0-1)
During the match19′ equaliser, FC Barcelona (1-1)
During the match21′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match51′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (3-1)
During the match71′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (4-2)
During the match90′ turnaround, FC Barcelona go ahead (5-2)

What it changes

In this league, “FC Barcelona or draw” goes from 78.6% to 79.3% success rate, over 29 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 594,066 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes