Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

La Liga · Spain

full time

Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Real Madrid

4–1full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 3–0

Real Sociedad

What Janus-12 said

50%

Real Madrid ahead at half-time

88% success over 17 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 50 %

A prediction at 50 % fails 50 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Real Madrid ahead at half-time

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 26/08, 23:00.

Sealed on 26/08, 20:00announced on 15/08/2026, 11 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

82% success over 17 matches in this league
91%✓
76% success over 17 matches in this league
65%✗
71% success over 17 matches in this league
58%✗
65% success over 17 matches in this league
57%✓
41% success over 17 matches in this league
76%✓

La Liga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atlético de Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Deportivo Alavés	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruña	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta de Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Málaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Real Madrid ahead at half-time50%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 40′ Real Madrid, 44′ Real Sociedad.
Real Madrid or draw91%held
- Real Madrid took the lead in the 60th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 11 shots on target for Real Madrid against 3.
Under 3.5 goals65%lost
- The chances said so: 3.71 expected goals in total.
- The two teams had 14 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
At most 1 goal before half-time58%lost
Over 2.5 goals57%held
Real Madrid to win76%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Madrid 4th, Real Sociedad 8th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match40′ opening goal, Real Madrid (1-0)
During the match44′ equaliser, Real Sociedad (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match60′ Real Madrid retake the lead (2-1)
During the match68′ Real Madrid go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match80′ last goal, Real Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Real Madrid ahead at half-time” goes from 88.2% to 83.3% success rate, over 18 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,121 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Real Madrid on the left, Real Sociedad on the right.

First half

10'Yellow card · A. Carreras
Yellow card · Y. Herrera31'
40'Goal · K. Mbappe (assist : F. Valverde)
Goal · L. Sucic44'
Yellow card · J. Aramburu45+2'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

46'Substitution · A. Carreras ⇄ M. Cucurella
Substitution · M. Oyarzabal ⇄ O. Oskarsson57'
Substitution · J. Aramburu ⇄ I. Zubeldia57'
60'Goal · K. Mbappe (assist : J. Bellingham)
Substitution · J. Ochieng ⇄ A. Barrenetxea66'
Substitution · Y. Herrera ⇄ C. Soler66'
68'Goal · Vinicius Junior (assist : J. Bellingham)
Yellow card · L. Beitia71'
73'Yellow card · I. Konate
Substitution · T. Kubo ⇄ G. Guedes74'
78'Substitution · J. Bellingham ⇄ E. Camavinga
78'Substitution · A. Guler ⇄ B. Diaz
80'Goal · K. Mbappe (assist : Vinicius Junior)
84'Substitution · Vinicius Junior ⇄ Y. Diomande
86'Substitution · B. Silva ⇄ C. Espi
90'VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside · B. Diaz
90+4'Yellow card · E. Camavinga

What we announced

3/6

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Real Madrid ahead at half-time50%lost
- It was all decided before the break: 1-1 at half-time, 40′ Real Madrid, 44′ Real Sociedad.
Real Madrid or draw91%held
- Real Madrid took the lead in the 60th minute and never let it go.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 11 shots on target for Real Madrid against 3.
Under 3.5 goals65%lost
- The chances said so: 3.71 expected goals in total.
- The two teams had 14 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
At most 1 goal before half-time58%lost
Over 2.5 goals57%held
Real Madrid to win76%held

What happened

Before kick-off

TableReal Madrid 4th, Real Sociedad 8th (La Liga)

During the match

During the match40′ opening goal, Real Madrid (1-0)
During the match44′ equaliser, Real Sociedad (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match60′ Real Madrid retake the lead (2-1)
During the match68′ Real Madrid go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match80′ last goal, Real Madrid

What it changes

In this league, “Real Madrid ahead at half-time” goes from 88.2% to 83.3% success rate, over 18 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,121 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

La Liga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes