Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Segunda División · Spain

full time

Friday, 2 October 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Friday 2 October at 19:30. Originally planned for Sunday 4 October at 16:00.

Change noted on 24/09.

Eldense

4–1full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 4–0

Real Oviedo

What Janus-12 said

93%

Under 4.5 goals

88% success over 73 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 7 %

A prediction at 93 % fails 7 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 02/10, 20:30.

Sealed on 02/10, 19:30announced on 20/09/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

75% success over 72 matches in this league
70%✓
73% success over 73 matches in this league
61%✓
73% success over 73 matches in this league
82%✗
56% success over 72 matches in this league
63%✗

Segunda

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	SD Eibar	8	7	0	1	+11	21
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Almería	8	6	0	2	+8	18
4	Girona	8	4	2	2	+6	14
5	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Burgos	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sabadell	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Sporting Gijón	8	4	1	3	0	13
9	Granada	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Real Oviedo	8	3	2	3	0	11
11	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Tenerife	8	3	2	3	-2	11
13	Leganés	8	3	2	3	-5	11
14	Real Valladolid	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Cordoba	8	3	0	5	-5	9
16	Sociedad B	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Eldense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
18	Celta B	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Cádiz	8	1	4	3	+1	7
20	Andorra	8	2	1	5	-3	7
21	Ceuta	8	1	2	5	-11	5
22	Albacete	8	0	1	7	-10	1

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals93%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 1st minute, 5 in total.
- The two teams had 13 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Eldense or Real Oviedo70%held
Over 1.5 goals61%held
Under 3.5 goals82%lost
Under 2.5 goals63%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEldense 17th, Real Oviedo 10th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match1′ opening goal, Real Oviedo (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match56′ equaliser, Eldense (1-1)
Line-up56′ the goal came off the bench: Roberto López (Eldense)
During the match68′ turnaround, Eldense go ahead (2-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, Eldense go ahead (3-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, Eldense go ahead (4-1)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Aingeru Olabarrieta (Eldense)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Jorge Rastrojo (Eldense)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 87.7% to 86.5% success rate, over 74 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Eldense on the left, Real Oviedo on the right.

First half

Goal · Alberto Reina (assist : David Jimenez)1'
Yellow card · Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva22'
Yellow card · David Jimenez40'
43'Yellow card · Alex Serradell Garralaga
45'Substitution · Iker Recio Ortega ⇄ Juan Larios López
45'Substitution · Guillermo Macho Muñoz ⇄ Roberto López

Half-time0 – 1

Second half

50'Yellow card · Juan Larios López
56'Penalty goal · Roberto López
Substitution · Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva ⇄ Juan Cruz64'
Substitution · David Jimenez ⇄ Aisar Ahmed65'
Substitution · Daniel Villahermosa ⇄ Enzo Pérez Miranda65'
65'Substitution · Roberto López ⇄ Aingeru Olabarrieta
Yellow card · Pablo Saenz67'
68'Penalty goal · Fidel
71'Substitution · Fidel ⇄ Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo
Yellow card · Carlos Dominguez71'
Substitution · Youness Lachhab Didi ⇄ Víctor García Mingo73'
76'Substitution · Waldo Rubio ⇄ Jorge Rastrojo
Substitution · Juan Cruz ⇄ Nacho Vidal83'
90'Goal · Aingeru Olabarrieta (assist : Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo)
90+5'Goal · Jorge Rastrojo

What we announced

2/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals93%lost
- The match opened up straight away: first goal in the 1st minute, 5 in total.
- The two teams had 13 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Eldense or Real Oviedo70%held
Over 1.5 goals61%held
Under 3.5 goals82%lost
Under 2.5 goals63%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableEldense 17th, Real Oviedo 10th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match1′ opening goal, Real Oviedo (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match56′ equaliser, Eldense (1-1)
Line-up56′ the goal came off the bench: Roberto López (Eldense)
During the match68′ turnaround, Eldense go ahead (2-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, Eldense go ahead (3-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, Eldense go ahead (4-1)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Aingeru Olabarrieta (Eldense)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Jorge Rastrojo (Eldense)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 87.7% to 86.5% success rate, over 74 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,029 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Segunda

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes