Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Segunda División · Spain

full time

Saturday, 3 October 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 3 October at 15:15. Originally planned for Sunday 4 October at 16:00.

Change noted on 24/09.

Almería

2–1full timeHT 0–1 · 2H 2–0

Burgos

What Janus-12 said

93%

Under 4.5 goals

86% success over 74 matches in this league

✓ It happened

Where to find this bet· 6 bookmakers

Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 04/10, 00:00.

Sealed on 03/10, 15:15announced on 20/09/2026, 12 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

75% success over 73 matches in this league
76%✓
73% success over 74 matches in this league
63%✓
72% success over 74 matches in this league
81%✓
55% success over 73 matches in this league
62%✗

Segunda

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	SD Eibar	8	7	0	1	+11	21
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Almería	8	6	0	2	+8	18
4	Girona	8	4	2	2	+6	14
5	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Burgos	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sabadell	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Sporting Gijón	8	4	1	3	0	13
9	Granada	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Real Oviedo	8	3	2	3	0	11
11	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Tenerife	8	3	2	3	-2	11
13	Leganés	8	3	2	3	-5	11
14	Real Valladolid	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Cordoba	8	3	0	5	-5	9
16	Sociedad B	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Eldense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
18	Celta B	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Cádiz	8	1	4	3	+1	7
20	Andorra	8	2	1	5	-3	7
21	Ceuta	8	1	2	5	-11	5
22	Albacete	8	0	1	7	-10	1

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals93%held
- The two teams managed only 12 shots on target in total, for 3 goals.
Almería or draw76%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Almería against 4.
Over 1.5 goals63%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals81%held
Under 2.5 goals62%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlmería 3rd, Burgos 6th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match40′ opening goal, Burgos (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match77′ equaliser, Almería (1-1)
During the match84′ turnaround, Almería go ahead (2-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 86.5% to 86.7% success rate, over 75 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Almería on the left, Burgos on the right.

First half

19'Substitution · Mikel Vesga ⇄ Quim junyent
33'Yellow card · Léo Baptistão
Yellow card · Brais Martínez37'
Goal · Jon Karrikaburu (assist : Javier Llabrés Exposito)40'

Half-time0 – 1

Second half

49'Yellow card · Marcos Luna
58'Substitution · Léo Baptistão ⇄ Adrián Embarba
59'Substitution · Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo ⇄ Miguel De La Fuente
59'Substitution · Marcos Luna ⇄ Daijiro Chirino
Substitution · Curro ⇄ Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña63'
Substitution · Jon Karrikaburu ⇄ Álex Forés63'
Substitution · Javier Llabrés Exposito ⇄ Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios63'
Substitution · Brais Martínez ⇄ Pablo Galdames71'
Yellow card · Alberto Dadie74'
Yellow card · Pablo Galdames77'
77'Goal · Brian Cipenga (assist : Sergio Arribas Calvo)
Substitution · Alberto Dadie ⇄ Victor Mollejo82'
84'Goal · Miguel De La Fuente
87'Substitution · Leonardo Lelo ⇄ Álex Muñoz

What we announced

4/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals93%held
- The two teams managed only 12 shots on target in total, for 3 goals.
Almería or draw76%held
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Almería against 4.
Over 1.5 goals63%held
- The two teams had 12 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Under 3.5 goals81%held
Under 2.5 goals62%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableAlmería 3rd, Burgos 6th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match40′ opening goal, Burgos (0-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-1
During the match77′ equaliser, Almería (1-1)
During the match84′ turnaround, Almería go ahead (2-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 86.5% to 86.7% success rate, over 75 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 784,103 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Segunda

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes