Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Segunda División · Spain

full time

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Match postponed

Brought forward to Saturday 26 September at 13:00. Originally planned for Sunday 27 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 04/09.

Ceuta

3–1full timeHT 0–0 · 2H 3–1

Sociedad B

What Janus-12 said

92%

Under 4.5 goals

89% success over 63 matches in this league

✓ It happened

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Bet offered: Under 4.5 goals

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 26/09, 16:01.

Sealed on 26/09, 13:00announced on 12/09/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Other predictions, most reliable first

75% success over 63 matches in this league
78%✗
74% success over 62 matches in this league
73%✓
71% success over 63 matches in this league
66%✓
55% success over 62 matches in this league
57%✗

Segunda

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	SD Eibar	8	7	0	1	+11	21
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Almería	8	6	0	2	+8	18
4	Girona	8	4	2	2	+6	14
5	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Burgos	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sabadell	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Sporting Gijón	8	4	1	3	0	13
9	Granada	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Real Oviedo	8	3	2	3	0	11
11	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Tenerife	8	3	2	3	-2	11
13	Leganés	8	3	2	3	-5	11
14	Real Valladolid	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Cordoba	8	3	0	5	-5	9
16	Sociedad B	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Eldense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
18	Celta B	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Cádiz	8	1	4	3	+1	7
20	Andorra	8	2	1	5	-3	7
21	Ceuta	8	1	2	5	-11	5
22	Albacete	8	0	1	7	-10	1

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals92%held
- The match closed up after the sending-off in the 33rd minute, on the Sociedad B side.
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
Under 3.5 goals78%lost
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Ceuta or draw73%held
- Sociedad B played 57 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 33rd minute.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Ceuta against 2.
Over 1.5 goals66%held
Under 2.5 goals57%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCeuta 21st, Sociedad B 16th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match33′ sending-off, Sociedad B (Arkaitz Mariezkurrena)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match48′ opening goal, Sociedad B (0-1)
During the match66′ sending-off, Sociedad B (Kazunari Kita)
During the match67′ equaliser, Ceuta (1-1)
During the match81′ turnaround, Ceuta go ahead (2-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, Ceuta go ahead (3-1)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Jordi Escobar (Ceuta)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 88.9% to 89.1% success rate, over 64 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,943 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Ceuta on the left, Sociedad B on the right.

First half

Red card · Arkaitz Mariezkurrena33'
Yellow card · Kazunari Kita44'

Half-time0 – 0

Second half

Goal · Kazunari Kita48'
51'VAR: Goal cancelled · Carlos Hernández
64'Substitution · Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez ⇄ Jordi Escobar
Red card · Kazunari Kita66'
Substitution · Alex Marchal García ⇄ Unax Agote67'
67'Goal · Carlos Hernández (assist : Kialy Abdoul Kone)
68'Yellow card · José Juan Romero Gil
Yellow card · Gorka Carrera Zarranz71'
71'Yellow card · José Matos
Substitution · Gorka Carrera Zarranz ⇄ Javier Soroeta71'
Substitution · Alex Lebarbier ⇄ Ibai Aguirre72'
Substitution · Dani Diaz ⇄ Gorka Gorosabel72'
73'Yellow card · Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
76'Substitution · Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro ⇄ Marino Illesca
76'Substitution · José Antonio Abad Martínez ⇄ Alejandro Meléndez
81'Goal · Carlos Hernández (assist : Kialy Abdoul Kone)
86'Substitution · Kialy Abdoul Kone ⇄ Abraham Bueno Espinosa
Substitution · Iker Ropero ⇄ Sydney Osazuwa86'
86'Substitution · Anuar Mohamed Tuhami ⇄ Arick Betancourt
Yellow card · Unax Agote89'
90'Yellow card · Kuki Zalazar
Yellow card · Jon Balda90+7'
90+9'Goal · Jordi Escobar (assist : Abraham Bueno Espinosa)

What we announced

3/5

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Under 4.5 goals92%held
- The match closed up after the sending-off in the 33rd minute, on the Sociedad B side.
- Nothing had come by the break: 0-0 at half-time.
Under 3.5 goals78%lost
- The two teams had 10 shots on target: the match offered more than expected.
Ceuta or draw73%held
- Sociedad B played 57 minutes with ten men: sent off in the 33rd minute.
- The superiority showed on the pitch: 8 shots on target for Ceuta against 2.
Over 1.5 goals66%held
Under 2.5 goals57%lost

What happened

Before kick-off

TableCeuta 21st, Sociedad B 16th (Segunda)

During the match

During the match33′ sending-off, Sociedad B (Arkaitz Mariezkurrena)
During the matchHalf-time: 0-0
During the match48′ opening goal, Sociedad B (0-1)
During the match66′ sending-off, Sociedad B (Kazunari Kita)
During the match67′ equaliser, Ceuta (1-1)
During the match81′ turnaround, Ceuta go ahead (2-1)
During the match90′ turnaround, Ceuta go ahead (3-1)
Line-up90′ the goal came off the bench: Jordi Escobar (Ceuta)

What it changes

In this league, “Under 4.5 goals” goes from 88.9% to 89.1% success rate, over 64 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 598,943 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Segunda

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes