Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Bundesliga (Austria) · Austria

full time

Sunday, 13 September 2026

Match postponed

Moved to Sunday 13 September at 16:00. Originally planned for Saturday 12 September at 16:00.

Change noted on 03/09.

Sturm Graz

2–1full timeHT 1–1 · 2H 1–0

LASK

What Janus-12 said

71%

Draw or LASK

71% success over 21 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 29 %

A prediction at 71 % fails 29 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Draw or LASK

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 13/09, 15:40.

Sealed on 13/09, 16:00announced on 29/08/2026, 14 days before kick-off

Bundesliga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	SK Rapid	7	6	0	1	+14	18
2	Salzburg	7	5	2	0	+14	17
3	LASK	7	5	1	1	+12	16
4	Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	-1	11
5	Ried	7	2	2	3	-1	8
6	Hartberg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
7	Tirol	7	2	2	3	-3	8
8	A. Lustenau	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Grazer AK	7	2	2	3	-10	8
10	Austria Vienna	7	2	1	4	-6	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Altach	7	1	0	6	-7	3

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or LASK71%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: LASK had 25 shots against 14, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSturm Graz 4th, LASK 3rd (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match34′ opening goal, Sturm Graz (1-0)
During the match45′ equaliser, LASK (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match59′ Sturm Graz retake the lead (2-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or LASK” goes from 71.4% to 68.2% success rate, over 22 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

Sturm Graz on the left, LASK on the right.

First half

VAR: Penalty cancelled · George Bello13'
13'Yellow card · Jurgen Heil
34'Goal · Gizo Mamageishvili (assist : Simon Seidl)
Goal · Krystof Danek45+3'

Half-time1 – 1

Second half

50'Substitution · Seedy Jatta ⇄ Oumar Diakité
59'Goal · Oumar Diakité (assist : Arjan Malić)
Substitution · Christoph Lang ⇄ Sasa Kalajdzic60'
Substitution · Krystof Danek ⇄ Robert Ljubicic60'
61'Substitution · Gizo Mamageishvili ⇄ Otar Kiteishvili
61'Substitution · Simon Seidl ⇄ Filip Rozga Kucharczyk
Yellow card · Melayro Bogarde76'
Substitution · Melayro Bogarde ⇄ Alessandro Schöpf77'
77'Substitution · Jon Gorenc Stanković ⇄ Luca Weinhandl
Substitution · Kasper Jorgensen ⇄ Florian Flecker82'
85'Yellow card · Otar Kiteishvili
85'Yellow card · Filip Rozga Kucharczyk
Yellow card · Sascha Horvath85'
90+6'Missed penalty · Otar Kiteishvili

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or LASK71%lost
- Finishing decided it, not dominance: LASK had 25 shots against 14, for 1 goal against 2.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSturm Graz 4th, LASK 3rd (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match34′ opening goal, Sturm Graz (1-0)
During the match45′ equaliser, LASK (1-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 1-1
During the match59′ Sturm Graz retake the lead (2-1)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or LASK” goes from 71.4% to 68.2% success rate, over 22 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 597,117 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Bundesliga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes