Janus-12 · One eye on the past, one eye on the future

Janus-12

Bundesliga (Austria) · Austria

full time

Sunday, 30 August 2026

SK Rapid

3–1full timeHT 2–1 · 2H 1–0

Sturm Graz

What Janus-12 said

71%

Draw or Sturm Graz

82% success over 17 matches in this league

✗ Fell into the 29 %

A prediction at 71 % fails 29 % of the time: it happened.

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Bet offered: Draw or Sturm Graz

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We don't show odds: check them at the bookmaker. Availability checked on 30/08, 15:40.

Sealed on 30/08, 16:00announced on 16/08/2026, 13 days before kick-off

Bundesliga

as of 06/10, 06:35

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Diff	Pts
1	SK Rapid	7	6	0	1	+14	18
2	Salzburg	7	5	2	0	+14	17
3	LASK	7	5	1	1	+12	16
4	Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	-1	11
5	Ried	7	2	2	3	-1	8
6	Hartberg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
7	Tirol	7	2	2	3	-3	8
8	A. Lustenau	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Grazer AK	7	2	2	3	-10	8
10	Austria Vienna	7	2	1	4	-6	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Altach	7	1	0	6	-7	3

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Sturm Graz71%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: SK Rapid scored in the 86th minute.
- Sturm Graz chased the score almost all match: SK Rapid scored as early as the 7th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSK Rapid 1st, Sturm Graz 4th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match7′ opening goal, SK Rapid (1-0)
During the match10′ equaliser, Sturm Graz (1-1)
During the match17′ SK Rapid retake the lead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match86′ SK Rapid go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match90′ sending-off, Sturm Graz (A. Vallci)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Sturm Graz” goes from 82.4% to 77.8% success rate, over 18 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

How the match unfolded

SK Rapid on the left, Sturm Graz on the right.

First half

Yellow card · J. Heil3'
7'Penalty goal · Y. Demir
Goal · B. Beganovic (assist : S. Seidl)10'
17'Goal · M. Tilio (assist : T. Adamsen)

Half-time2 – 1

Second half

Substitution · E. Soglo ⇄ L. Balbo46'
46'Substitution · J. Horn ⇄ E. Roka
Substitution · J. Hodl ⇄ G. Mamageishvili46'
Yellow card · J. Gorenc Stankovic53'
Substitution · B. Beganovic ⇄ N. Weiper59'
59'Yellow card · R. Amane
61'Substitution · M. Tilio ⇄ P. Dahl
Yellow card · L. Weinhandl65'
73'Substitution · R. Amane ⇄ M. Seidl
73'Substitution · T. Adamsen ⇄ E. Kara
Substitution · S. Seidl ⇄ V. Matoshi75'
Substitution · P. Koller ⇄ J. Quarshie81'
84'Substitution · M. Haidara ⇄ N. Wurmbrand
86'Goal · P. Dahl (assist : Y. Demir)
89'Yellow card · N. Wurmbrand
Red card · A. Vallci90'

What we announced

0/1

Under each prediction, the most plausible explanation of what became of it.

Draw or Sturm Graz71%lost
- It all came down to the final minutes: SK Rapid scored in the 86th minute.
- Sturm Graz chased the score almost all match: SK Rapid scored as early as the 7th minute.

What happened

Before kick-off

TableSK Rapid 1st, Sturm Graz 4th (Bundesliga)

During the match

During the match7′ opening goal, SK Rapid (1-0)
During the match10′ equaliser, Sturm Graz (1-1)
During the match17′ SK Rapid retake the lead (2-1)
During the matchHalf-time: 2-1
During the match86′ SK Rapid go 2 goals up (3-1)
During the match90′ sending-off, Sturm Graz (A. Vallci)

What it changes

In this league, “Draw or Sturm Graz” goes from 82.4% to 77.8% success rate, over 18 settled matches, this one included.

This prediction came from a model trained on 593,738 matches. This one is now part of it: the model is retrained from scratch twice a day, result included.

Our wins and our failures are counted in the same place, in public. See the full record.

Bundesliga

What our figure doesn't see

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes

How the match unfolded

What we announced

What happened

What it changes